The sun has set on Phoenix for this season, with two teams facing elimination games here, in Philadelphia and Portland.
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Best Bet
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics (09:10am)
I said I would take this until he proved me otherwise and here we are.
White hasn’t threatened his PRA lines for some time, the bookies keep lowering them, but his averages are just still far below. This line has dropped from 24.5 last week as our best bet to now 21.5. Whites PRA average for this series is just 16.1 per game.
He is always going to contribute across the board for Boston but without the scoring he just won’t hit this line. His TS% sits at 42 for the series and he has made only seven of twenty-nine three-point attempts. With Brown, Tatum and now Pritchard scorching hot, Derrick doesn’t need to score, as we saw last game with just five field goal attempts.
Next Best
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs (11:40am)
His numbers are fairly skewed from his huge game in game three, where he had 27 points and 10 boards shooting at 75%. You can’t ignore it, but it’s definitely an outlier this series.
His PRA average for the other three games is 10, he hasn’t made a three point outside of game three and he played five more minutes in game three than any other game. With Wemby back, there’s 35 minutes that doesn’t get spread out and I expect Stephon Castles minutes to bounce back.
Look, if he goes off with 92%TS again and takes five threes, he probably clears, but if Portland keep this within ten points all game, he should just come in to provide rest for the starters and head back out again.
Value Bet
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks (10:10am)
Feel like a broken record here, but Dys keeps racking them up so we should keep backing him in.
A series average of 15.1RA with just one game going under this line. He saw reduced minutes as New York were trying to use a strategy involving leaving Dyson wide open to shoot. Granted, this only happens if you deserve it and on current form, Daniels probably does. He has only hit the one three ball against New York and they know that, averaging just six points per game this series.
But it’s not his points line that affects us here, as long as keeps rebounding far beyond his size and adding a few dimes along the way, his defence alone will see him stay on the floor.
