NBA Tips - Tuesday, November 19 NBA Picks & Multi

De’Aaron Fox has scored 109 points over the last two games dragging the Kings over the line last game – enter Dyson Daniels.

Best Bet

Pholadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat (11:40am)

Joel Embiid

Under 37.5 PRA

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$1.96

Was much better last start against the Magic but still didn’t come close to the PRA of 37.5 in the end, running out of gas in the second half despite his minutes creeping up to 33.

Joel Embiid will now face the Heat, and although bigs have actually played quite well against Miami this season, Bam Adebayo has a great record against Embiid.

Even when Embiid was at MVP level, in his last nine games against Bam he averages a PRA of just 31, covering 37.5 PRA just twice. I think we’ll see Embiid around this 32-minute mark for a while, so cannot see him covering this PRA against his kryptonite.

SGM – Embiid Under 37.5 PRA / Herro 20+ Points / George 15+ Points = $3.40

Next Best

Golden State Warriors @ LA Clippers (2:40pm)

James Harden

Over 5.5 Rebounds

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$1.72

Is consistently hitting at least 6 rebounds a game this season, averaging just under 8 per game.

Harden has covered 5.5 rebounds in his last five games, and across his 14 games this season ‘The Beard’ has hit 6+ on 11 occasions.

Golden State concede rebounds to point guards 14% above average the last month and in their previous match-up Harden finished with 7. No reason to jump off now.

SGM – Harden 6+ Rebounds / Zubac 12+ Rebounds / Curry 6+ Assists = $4.50

Value Bet

Atlanta Hawks @ Sacramento Kings (2:10pm)

Atlanta

Win

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$2.50

Although they enter Sacramento off no rest after losing to Portland on the road, I think this is a great match-up and opportunity for Atlanta.

The Kings are likely to still be without DeRozan, Monk and Sabonis, which means they’re extremely dependent on De’Aaron Fox. He dragged them over the line against the Jazz last start with 49 points, and has scored 44% of Sacramento’s score the last two games – but Utah are terrible and have no defensive pieces to go with Fox.

Dyson Daniels could be the best possible match-up for Fox in the NBA right now. The Australian is leading the NBA in steals and deflections and will 100% get the Fox job. Atlanta should win this if Daniels can keep Fox to 30 or less, and I think his length will trouble the Kings guard.

SGM – Hawks +4.5 / Daniels 10+ Points / Johnson 4+ Assists = $3.20

Tuesday NBA Multi

Hawks +4.5 / Bulls +3.5
$3.70

Sports Journalist

Dale Crotty

Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.