The Sacramento Kings are desperate for a win – can Domantas Sabonis lead the way when they host a Luka-less Dallas Mavericks outfit?
Best Bet
Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings (2:10pm)
Foul trouble hurt Sabonis’ last game against the Lakers scoring 14 points in just 26 minutes, but with the Kings desperate for a win the big Lithuanian will play around 36 minutes against Dallas, if he can stay out of foul trouble.
The Mavericks have had their fair share of issues against centres over the last month – they’re the easiest team for five-men to score against during this period, conceding points at 22% above average.
Averaging 20.9 points per game this season, when Sabonis plays 34+ minutes this season his average jumps to 21.9 points while covering 18.5 points at a 70% coverage rate. With Lively still a question mark, expect Domantas to cash-in.
SGM – Sabonis Over 18.5 Points / Irving Under 5.5 Assists / Sabonis 12+ Rebounds = $4.20
Next Best
Chicago Bulls @ Charlotte Hornets (11:10am)
No Dosunmu is huge for Josh Giddey, shortening the guard rotation which gives the Australian extra minutes and usage for the Bulls.
Giddey averages 17.6 points and 9.5 rebounds per 36 minutes when Dosunmu is off the floor this season – both statistical categories up compared to when the Bulls are full strength.
Despite an injury setback in between, Giddey’s last three games have produced PRs of 26, 20 and a whopping 38 last start against the Bucks. With Charlotte barely a defensive juggernaut, think the Australian can capitalise once again.
SGM – Giddey 19.5 PR / Mark Williams Over 22.5 PR / Bridges 4+ Assists = $4.50
Value Bet
Philadelphia 76ers @ Portland Trail Blazers (2:10pm)
Tyrese Maxey is posting huge numbers lately, even alongside Joel Embiid, and against this poor Trail Blazers outfit we should see another big game.
Maxey averages 31.2 points from his last six games, scoring 30+ in four of those including the last three starts.
Portland is the easiest team for point guards to score against over the last month giving up points 15% above average, so he may not stop at 30…
40+ is paying $9.50.
SGM – Maxey Over 27.5 Points / George 15+ Points / Embiid 8+ Rebounds = $4.33
Tuesday NBA Multi
Cavs / Clippers / Bulls
$3.06
