This rookie class continues to impress, and there’s a big man playing at New Orleans that has put himself in the Rookie of the Year calculations who is set for another big game.
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Best Bet
Phoenix Suns @ Washington Wizards (11:10am)
Banking on the fact that Alex Sarr is rested for the Wizards who will enter this clash with the Suns off no rest after recording a win over the Grizzlies on Monday.
Already averaging 13.4 points and 7 rebounds over the last 12 games, Bagley’s numbers see a significant jump when Sarr is out.
From his seven games without the Frenchman, Bagley averages 13.9 points and 8.4 rebounds, covering this line in five of those seven games. Assuming we don’t see Sarr, this will be a cover for Bagley.
Next Best
Golden State Warriors @ Brooklyn Nets (11:40am)
Played 19 minutes in his first game back from injury and dropped a lazy 30 points on the Timberwolves in a major upset win.
This line simply looks too low for Cam Thomas who can score big quickly.
Running at 29.3 points per 36 minutes this season, he really only needs to play around 22 minutes to cover against the Warriors based on this logic. His minutes should progress to around this in his second game back, and there’s no doubt he’ll get them up.
Value Bet
New York Knicks @ New Orleans Pelicans (12:10pm)
Numbers have been strong in recent form for the rookie, with Queen averaging 16.8 points and 9.5 rebounds from his last six games.
Queen has recorded double doubles in four of his last six games, and the Knicks will give him plenty of opportunities to record his fifth in seven games.
New York concedes rebounds to centres 15% above average over the last month, and with Mitchell Robinson out for the Knicks this should really provide Queen with more opportunities on the glass than usual.
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