The best player in the world will host Phoenix off no rest after orchestrating an OT win over the Pelicans on Monday, but that won’t slow him down in a nice match-up for the Joker.
Best Bet
Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets (2:10pm)
Bigs have been destroying Jusuf Nurkic this season especially of late, and there’s no better big than Nikola Jokic.
Although centres are scoring just 8% above average against Phoenix over the last month, this sample includes a five-game block where the Bosnian Beast wasn’t playing – last start Jalen Duren posted a season-high with 17 points covering his points line by quarter time.
| Opponent | Score vs Nurkic | Season Average |
| Jalen Duren (DET) | 17 | 9.2 |
| Myles Turner (IND) | 19 | 15 |
| Donovan Clingan (POR) | 10 | 6 |
| Walker Kessler (UTA) | 17 | 10.6 |
| Ben Simmons (BKN) | 14 | 6 |
Jokic averages 32 points per game from his last 15, scoring 30+ in nine of those games. He’s had a few lower scoring games of late by his lofty standards, but these were against the Clippers, Kings and Pelicans – three teams that restrict centres below average. I’ll be taking the big Serbian for 30+, as well as 40+ at $8.50.
SGM – Jokic 30+ Points / O’Neale 10+ Points / Jokic 8+ Assists = $3.75
Next Best
LA Clippers @ Memphis Grizzlies (12:10pm)
Beware the Memphis Point Guard shackles. James Harden is putting together a great season leading the Clippers, but perhaps slightly overstated by the bookmakers.
Harden’s average PA over the last 23 games is at 29, incredibly failing to cover the PA of 31.5 in 20 of those 23 games.
The Grizzlies are a tough match-up for point guards – they are the second most difficult to score against and third most difficult to produce assists against at 12% and 20% below average respectively. I’m expecting a tough one for Harden here.
SGM – Grizzlies -5.5 / Harden 4+ Rebounds / Harden Under 31.5 PA = $3.40
Value Bet
Washington Wizards @ OKC Thunder (12:10pm)
Never easy being a rookie in the worst team in the NBA, but Bub Carrington is getting plenty of minutes, albeit he’s not overly effective.
One thing he does do well though is rebound from the off-guard spot. Averaging 4.5 a game this season, Carrington’s average has jumped over the last five games to 6.6 which includes a double-double against the Celtics.
The Thunder as a collective are one of the easier teams to rebound against this season, so this price for Carrington is great value considering he’s hit 6+ in three of his last four.
SGM – Hartenstein 10+ Points / Sarr 6+ Rebounds / Carrington 4+ Rebounds = $3.30
Tuesday NBA Multi
Rockets / Grizzlies / Nuggets / Heat
$3.50
