Cleveland big man Evan Mobley should be back from an ankle tweak and looks to continue his red-hot form against the Brooklyn Nets.
Best Bet
Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Hornets (11:10am)
No Embiid, Caleb Martin or McCain for the 76ers when they head to Charlotte, and although the latter doesn’t necessarily correlate with Yabusele positionally, it does mean there’s points left over for the Frenchman to consume for Philadelphia.
When Yabusele plays 20+ minutes this season, he averages a PRA of 21.7 covering 16.5 in 10 of those 13 games.
When Embiid, McCain and Martin have been off the floor this season, the Frenchman is going at 21.4 points, 8.6 rebounds and 3.1 assists per 36 minutes. I think we see 30+ minutes for Yabusele through power forward and centre, so I’m expecting an easy cover.
SGM – Ball 20+ Points / Yabusele Over 16.5 PRA / Oubre 6+ Rebounds = $4.50
Next Best
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Brooklyn Nets (11:40am)
The big man is likely to return against the Nets, and even if he has a minutes restriction this points line is way too low.
Mobley averages 18.8 points per game from his last 11, but this includes an 18-minute blowout against the Pelicans where he scored 9 points, and last start against Miami where he had 4 points in 12 minutes before sitting out due to an ankle – so his points per 36 minutes over this timeframe are at 21.8 per game.
If you remove these outliers from this sample size, Mobley is averaging 21.6 points across nine games, and after scoring 23 on the Nets earlier in the season I expect the Cavs’ big man to cover this in his return game.
SGM – Mobley 15+ Points / Mobley 8+ Rebounds / Mitchell 4+ Assists = $3.30
Value Bet
Chicago Bulls @ Toronto Raptors (11:40am)
The Raptors were playing Barnes at point while Quickley was injured, and now that Barnes is out they’ve opted to go big with RJ Barrett at the one instead of starting Davion Mitchell.
So far, so good – last start Barrett recorded his second triple double of the season and he’s a genuine threat for both rebounds and assists while Barnes sits.
With the Bulls conceding assists to point guards 21% above average over the last month making them the easiest team in the NBA for opponents to generate assists against over this period, so I think we could see another big assist game from RJ – $12 for another triple double is also in play.
SGM – Vucevic Over 18.5 Points / Dick 15+ Points / Barrett Over 6.5 Assists = $4.20
Tuesday NBA Multi
Hornets +3 / Heat / Cavs
$3.50
