We return to OKC for Game 5 with the Thunder looking to close the series and advance to the NBA Finals.
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Minnesota Timberwolves @ OKC Thunder (10:30am)
Best Bet
Feel like this Thunder team are highly analytical with who and how they play, and Isaiah Hartenstein will suffer because of it.
Looking at the lineups this series, Hartenstein doesn’t feature in OKC’s best three lineups from a +/- perspective, and features in just one of their best 12 5-man lineups. He has the second-worst +/- this series for the Thunder, slightly ahead of Wiggins who the coaching staff benched for Game 4.
Playing just 15 minutes in Game 4, I think we’ll see something similar in Game 5 as they opt to go small with Chet in the 5 and Jalen Williams in the 4. In the three games that iHart has played 20 minutes or less this series, he’s failed to cover the 6.5 rebound line and although he’ll be around the mark I still don’t think he plays enough to cover.
Value Bet
Just get the impression that Game 4 was Minnesota’s final blow.
The inconsistency of Randle has hurt the Timberwolves this series and they only got close in Game 4 on their home court based off the bench output from NAW, Donte and Naz.
I simply cannot see a repeat of this – DiVincenzo is shooting the ball at 29% from the field on the road, Alexander Walker slightly better at 35%, and if you overlook Naz’s first playoff game in LA, he’s shot the ball at 33% in the last six road playoff games.
Outside of Ant and Randle, the Timberwolves threw everything at the Thunder in game 4 – it’s time for OKC to land the knockout blow.
SGM
OKC -8.5 / Hartenstein Under 6.5 Rebounds / Caruso 1+ 3PM = $4.00
