The MVP favourite is producing insane numbers over the last six weeks and I think we’ll see him go big again on a monster 15-game slate.
Best Bet
LA Lakers @ Utah Jazz (1:10pm)
It’s a huge PRA line for Luka against a Utah team that were nowhere near them last start.
Doncic was on a minutes restriction in his first game as a Laker, and I don’t expect that to change here leading into the All Star break, while this game screams blowout once again.
We saw Redick play Luka off the ball early in his Lakers debut with Reaves at the point, while LeBron continued to orchestrate the break out of transition. With a PRA of 23 in 24 minutes last start, I can’t see LA pushing him past 30 in this.
SGM – Luka Under 39.5 PRA / LeBron 8+ Assists / Lakers = $4.00
Next Best
Miami Heat @ OKC Thunder (12:10pm)
Numbers are absolutely wild considering the reduced minutes with the number of blowouts OKC play in.
SGA averages a PA of 40.6 over the last 28 games, covering the PA line of 37.5 in 19 of those.
We could quite easily get another blowout here, but I think we’ll see Miami competitive for a lot longer than the likes of New Orleans, Phoenix, Toronto and Sacramento most recently. I’ll back him in to play 34 minutes, and from his last 15 games of 34+ minutes SGA averages a PA of 43.3, covering in 12 of those. Let’s ride the hot hand.
SGM – SGA Over 37.5 PA / Andrew Wiggins 15+ Points / Ware Under 9.5 Rebounds = $5.25
Value Bet
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks (11:40am)
It’s hard to get a gauge as to what Quin Snyder wants to do with Gueye, but the Power Forward should now get opportunity for the remainder of the season.
With Hunter traded out and both Nance and Krejci injured last game, I think we’ll see Gueye start at the four for the Hawks like last start.
His line is only 5.5 here, but Gueye scored 7 points in the first quarter against the Magic, finishing with 9 in just 15 minutes of play – the start prior, he had 15 in 23 minutes. Due to the injuries and shortened rotations, we should see the Senegalese back around that 20-minute mark against New York.
SGM – Gueye Over 5.5 Points / Towns Under 25.5 Points / Hart 8+ Rebounds = $4.20
Thursday NBA Multi
Celtics / Pistons / Rockets / Lakers
$3.33
