A huge match-up between Denver and Minnesota which will likely determine the one-seed in the West – can the Timberwolves upset the Nuggets?
Best Bet
Memphis Grizzlies @ Cleveland Cavaliers (9:10am)
Even if Evan Mobley plays 28 minutes against this Memphis outfit, he covers this points line.
Mobley has scored 20+ in five of his last six games now and will be guarded by Jake LaRavia or even Australian Jack White!
There’s a serious mismatch here between this Memphis G-Legaue roster and the Cavaliers bigs, and while Donovan Mitchell’s output is still down I expect both bigs to capitalise in a potential blowout.
SGM – Mobley Over 15.5 Points / Allen Over 17.5 Points / Strus 10+ Points = $6.00
Next Best
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets (12:10pm)
What a game with 1-seed repercussions at stake for the Nuggets and Timberwolves. When assessing, I think Minnesota need this more than the Nuggets who will simply back themselves in the playoffs wherever they finish.
With this in mind, I doubt we’ll see Jamal Murray play off no rest while I can’t see Michael Malone risking Aaron Gordon if it could potentially affect his post-season wellbeing.
Minnesota has covered in all three games against the Nuggets this season, while the Nuggets has a bottom-five coverage record in the NBA for teams off no rest this season as just 33.3%.
Don’t expect Malone to show his hand in this so the Timberwolves must be considered a strong chance.
SGM – Timberwolves +5.5 / Jokic 25+ Points / Porter 6+ Rebounds = $4.50
Value Bet
Charlotte Hornets @ Atlanta Hawks (9:40am)
Charlotte has absolutely nothing to play for so this is flirt with danger, but Atlanta could simply just be gassed.
Both teams will enter this off no rest, but the Hawks will do so off double overtime against the Heat which required Dejounte to play 48 minutes, Hunter 46, BogBog 44 and Capela season-high 37.
Jalen Johnson is injured again which is a big loss, and although the Hornets are no good they’ve still got some stability in their starting group with Micic, Miller and Bridges. It’s highly unlikely the Hawks jump the Bulls to host a play-in game, so Quin Snyder could pack this one in early if he doesn’t like what he sees.
SGM – Hornets +10.5 / Murray Under 24.5 Points / Bogdanovic 15+ Points = $4.33
Thursday NBA Multi
Suns
Magic
Nets
$3.78
