
Game 7, For all the marbles! This series deserved seven games, and it has lived up to expectation. Thunder Vs. Spurs winner takes all!
OKC Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs (10:40am)
Best Bet
Castle looked shaky early in the series with twenty turnovers in the first two games. He has cleaned that up with just six turnovers in total since.
He looks to have settled into the series now, whether the return of Fox has helped or he has figured out the Oklahoma defence, but he has been comfortable since game three.
He has loved playing in the Thunder gym, with an average of 27.3PR per game in Oklahoma versus just 19PR at home. We will always have the risk of foul trouble with Castle, but after 6 games in a row he has learnt how to defend Shai without taking the bait.
Value Bet
Hard to find something above $2 to attack here, so I’ve had to settle for the $1.96 and here’s why.
I think Fox is still injured. He looks hampered by that high ankle sprain that had him miss the first two games of the series. I saw him grimace multiple times in game six and was slow in transition at times. He is averaging 23.25PRA for the four games he has played against OKC, but the last two games have been games to forget for Fox. Averaging 19 PRA, shooting a miserable 20% from the field and has gone a freezing 0 from 7 three-point attempts.
I actually think the Spurs can win this game, but they will need to be at their defensive best. The young, active harassing defence is working so I expect plenty of Harper, Castle and Bryant. Fox played just 25 minutes in game 6…
SGM
Castle Over 21.5 PR/ Fox Under 15.5 Points/ Total Points Over 208.5 = $4.33
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