Has the Australian got the keys to this Bulls offense since the departure of Zach LaVine? Josh Giddey will host the Suns off the back of a huge game against the Knicks.
Best Bet
LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets (12:40pm)
33 minutes last start for Luka was promising – the poor shooting and bulk turnovers was not, but we did see glimpses of Dallas Luka finishing with 11 rebounds and 8 assists.
The rebounds are going to be there for Luka – Jaxson Hayes is a poor rebounder from the centre position, as is Dorian Finney-Smith while Alex Len is only good for waving a towel.
Surprisingly, Denver is the third easiest team in the NBA over the last month for point guards to produce assists against at 16% above average, so even if they shooting isn’t where it needs to be, I think we’ll still see plenty of rebounds and assists from Luka.
SGM – Luka Over 13.5 RA / MPJ 15+ Points / Rui 10+ Points = $3.40
Next Best
Phoenix Suns @ Chicago Bulls (9:10am)
The exit of Zach LaVine has unlocked a few extra minutes for Josh Giddey, who enters this contest with the Suns after posting 27 points and 16 rebounds against the Knicks.
In his last 11 games without LaVine, Giddey averages 16.2 points and 7.4 rebounds for a PR of 23.6, which includes games against some tough match-ups – but this match-up against the Suns is far from difficult at the moment.
Phoenix concede points to point guards 5% above average and rebounds 14% above average over the last month. With Giddey’s confidence likely sky-high off the back of last start, I think we’ll see him ultra-aggressive in this.
SGM – Bulls +4.5 / Giddey Over 21.5 PR / Richards Under 16.5 PR = $4.75
Value Bet
Charlotte Hornets @ Portland Trail Blazers (2:10pm)
Not great last start against the Lakers with just 6 points and 6 rebounds in 16 minutes, but the Lakers are a difficult match-up for centres – the Hornets on the other hand are not.
Mark Williams has been monstered on multiple occasions this season with the Hornets the second easiest team for centres to rebound against over the last month at 14% above average.
Clingan played Charlotte a month back, but it was his first game back from injury with a minutes restriction playing just 17 minutes – he finished with 13 rebounds still. The Portland rookie had 20 rebounds just before the All Star break against the Nuggets, so I can quite easily see him having a huge impact on the glass here.
SGM – Portland / Clingan Over 8.5 Rebounds / LaMelo Under 26.5 Points = $3.75
Sunday NBA Multi
Rockets / Trail Blazers / Nets +10.5 / Bulls +4.5
$7.40
