There’s no doubt who won this off-season trade now with Karl-Anthony Towns putting together an incredible season, and he gets a great look against the Pelicans.
Best Bet
Detroit Pistons @ Phoenix Suns (1:10pm)
No Devin Booker for Phoenix, and Tyus Jones has been able to fill the void when the Suns are missing one of their big three (if we still count Bradley Beal in that category).
Jones averages 14 points per game without KD this season, but has improved as the season has gone on covering this line in his last six without Durant. Without Beal, it’s a similar story – Jones averages 13.5 points across ten games but has covered this in his last six.
Happy to forgive his most recent performance against the Pacers, with the point guard averaging 17.1 points across the seven games prior.
SGM – Jones Over 12.5 Points / Duren Over 8.5 Points / Cunningham 6+ Rebounds = $5.00
Next Best
Memphis Grizzlies @ Atlanta Hawks (11:40am)
Horrible match-up for Trae Young against one of the league’s best defences in Memphis – and with Ja Morant doubtful, this doesn’t help him with Scottie Pippen Jr likely to gain the start who is a quality defender.
The Grizzlies have the fifth best defensive rating in the NBA this season, which improves when Morant isn’t on the floor. Young failed to cover this line against the Thunder earlier in the season who are ranked first, but has avoided facing some of the better defences in the NBA outside of OKC so this will be a real test.
Memphis is the second hardest team for point guards to both score and generate assists against over the last month, at 12% and 20% below average respectively. Although Trae has been much better lately, I can see a lull here.
SGM – Grizzlies / Young Under 23.5 Points / Capela 8+ Rebounds = $3.30
Value Bet
New York Knicks @ New Orleans Pelicans (12:10pm)
These rebound numbers are pure insanity for KAT who averaged 8 a game at Minnesota last season. Over KAT’s last 11 games, he averages 16.6 rebounds per game and has hit 16+ in six of those games.
There’s two factors as to why I think KAT could produce an absolute monster on the glass against the Pelicans – New Orleans are the easiest team for centres to rebound against over the last month at 18% above average, while Thibs doesn’t care for blowouts so KAT will probably still play at least 35 minutes.
Entering this off the back of two 20+ rebound games, I think we could see a third paying $9.50.
SGM – Hart Over 12.5 Points / Jones 10+ Points / Towns 14+ Rebounds = $4.33
Sunday NBA Multi
Grizzlies / Timberwolves / Mavs
$4.70
