With Kawhi Leonard doubtful, we could see a huge performance by James Harden when the Clippers host the Mavericks.
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Best Bet
Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat (10:10am)
Has exploded offensively without Andrew Wiggins in this line-up since the All Star break.
Bam averages 23.9 points from 11 games without Wiggins playing at power forward for the Heat, scoring 20+ points in seven of those games including the last three.
Tyler Herro is questionable in this, and if he does miss this Bam line will jump up to around 23.5, but even if Herro does suit up I think we’ll see another strong game from Adebayo. The Bucks concede points to power forwards 7% above average over the last month so I expect him to hit 20+ in this.
SGM: Bam 20+ Points / Giannis Under 49.5 PRA / Rollins 10+ Points = $4.75
Next Best
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Philadelphia 76ers (9:10am)
Had a stinker against the Nets which included heading to the locker room during the second quarter and playing just 27 minutes.
But prior to this Julius Randle had been great for the Timberwolves – his three games prior to last start Randle averaged a PRA of 40, easily covering this line on all three occasions.
This Philadelphia match-up is heaven for power forwards and centres – specifically for power forwards the 76ers concede points 18% above average, rebounds 11% above average and assists 21% above average over the last month.
He probably plays around 30 minutes in a likely blowout in this, but I still think he covers this PRA.
SGM: Randle Over 29.5 PRA / Edwards 25+ Points / McDaniels 4+ Rebounds = $4.00
Value Bet
Dallas Mavericks @ LA Clippers (12:40pm)
The markets currently have Kawhi Leonard playing, which is why we see James Harden’s points line only at 21.5 against the Mavericks – but I think the Clippers will rest Kawhi which should see a major boost for the Beard.
Harden has gone huge since the All Star break without Kawhi. He averages 29.4 points in five games without the Klaw, hitting 25+ points in two of them, while scoring 24 against both the Heat and Cavs – both better defensive units than Dallas.
Covering 21.5 points in four of the five, I really like the line in this banking on the fact that Leonard will miss, and I think Harden has the potential to go real big.
SGM: Harden over 21.5 Points / Zubac Over 29.5 PR / Davis Under 22.5 Points = $7.00
Sunday NBA Multi
Knicks / Pistons / Clippers = $4.11
