The Joker is going to need to produce an all-time performance for the Nuggets to try and square the series against the Clippers.
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Best Bet
OKC Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies (5:30am)
No Ja Morant for Memphis as they attempt to extend the series – but the reality is after coughing up a 30-point lead in Game 3, OKC is about to finish the Grizzlies off.
That being said, Scotty Pippen Jr was a real shining late in Game 3 finishing with 28 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists, and will see an increase in usage.
As a starter without Morant this season across 21 games, Pippen Jr’s average PRA is 24.3 – very similar to the line we’ve got here, but he averages that in less than 27 minutes per game.
In the five games he played 30+ minutes as a starter without Morant this season, he averages a PRA of 32.6. I expect the son of a gun to leave everything out on the floor and should cover this PRA.
SGM: Pippen Jr Over 24.5 PRA / Caruso Over 6.5 Points / Williams 4+ Assists = $4.20
Next Best
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors (10:30am)
Really struggled against the Warriors during the regular season, but it was probably more a trust thing from Udoka against a small-ball line-up.
Looking at Sengun’s per 36 minute numbers against Golden State during the regular season, they were actually quite good going at a PRA of 41.6 per 36 minutes – but he only averaged 28 minutes across the five games.
But in the playoffs, he’s been unleashed. Sengun averages 36 minutes in the two games this series and is delivering, averaging a PRA of 38 and covering this line on both occasions.
Even though this goes to the Chase Centre for Game 3, I think Udoka will continue to maximise Sengun against the Warriors making this line rather low.
SGM: Sengun Over 34.5 PRA / Thompson 10+ Points / Curry 6+ Assists = $4.20
Value Bet
Denver Nuggets @ LA Clippers (8:00am)
13 assists for Jokic in Game 3 in just 36 minutes, and although they didn’t directly double-team the 3-time MVP all that often backing in Zubac, the Clippers defence certainly did overhelp and collapse off the ball.
Denver need to win this – at least respond and show something in an attempt to square the series. As a result, I can quite easily see Jokic playing 45 minutes in this Game 4 clash.
Jokic has hit 12+ assists in two of the three games this series, and if we see his minutes increase dramatically on what we saw in Game 3, the 12+ dimes appears great value.
SGM: Jokic Triple Double / Porter 10+ Points / Powell 15+ Points = $4.50
Sunday NBA Multi
Rockets +3.5 / Clippers = $2.67
