What an insane Game 1 with the Pacers coming back from 14 points down with three and a half minutes remaining to force an OT win. Can Game 1 hero Aaron Nesmith back it up?
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Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks (10:00am)
Best Bet
Staggered to see this line for Game 1 hero Aaron Nesmith. Now, it’s highly unlikely we see him pop-off again for 30 points going 8/9 from deep, but this line is quite simply too low.
Nesmith has been far from a one-game wonder this post-season, covering the line of 12.5 points in 73% of games these playoffs, and he’s thrived on the road.
Averaging 16 points per game this post-season, Nesmith’s road average jumps to 19.2, where he’s covered the line of 12.5 points in all six road games.
From all players in the playoffs that have attempted 10 or more three-pointers, Nesmith is shooting the three-ball better than anyone going at 53.8%. If the hand stays hot, this is an easy cover.
Value Bet
Has been great at Madison Square Garden as the back-up big, in particular on the offensive glass.
Mitchell Robinson averages 6.9 rebounds from 18.8 minutes per game this post-season, and at home this rebound average jumps to 7.4. From Robinson’s last five home games, he’s hit 8+ in four of those with the only miss in Game 6 of the Celtics series where he played just 14 minutes.
The Pacers don’t have any renown rebounders in their rotation, so I think we’ll see Robinson continue to get around 20 minutes per game this series which should result in a strong impact on the glass.
SGM
Nesmith Over 12.5 Points / Towns 20+ Points / Robinson Over 6.5 Rebounds = $4.00
