Detroit big man Jalen Duren has produced a really strong back-end of this season, and he gets a great look against the Cavs who have been struggling defending centres of late.
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Best Bet
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons (10:10am)
Bigs continue to go to work against the Cavaliers of late, potentially exposing a bit of a weakness in their system.
The Spurs only have Bismack Biyombo as a genuine big – he played just 15 minutes but still scored 8 points, being his second-best points per minute this season. Portland’s Donovan Clingan had 18 and 12 the start prior – he would go 0 and 3 the next game against Sacramento.
Detroit’s Jalen Duren averages a PR of 25.2 over his last 33 games, covering the PR of 23.5 in 23 of those games. Although he didn’t cover last time against the Cavs, he only played 22 minutes due to foul trouble, while the time prior he finished on a PR of 28. Expect a similar PR in this.
SGM: Pistons +6.5 / Mobley 15+ Points / Duren Over 23.5 PR = $3.75
Next Best
Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves (11:10am)
Back in the starting line-up and has been great if you’re happy to overlook the blowout performance against the Celtics.
Ryan Dunn averages a PR of 18.9 over the last seven games, covering this PR in six of them – the miss being last start when he finished with 11 against Boston, but played just 21 minutes.
The field goal volume was consistent though, just being a poor shooting night, so I think we can see the Suns rookie respond when he faces the Timberwolves.
SGM: Dunn Over 14.5 PR / Gobert 10+ Points / Randle 4+ Assists = $3.75
Value Bet
Charlotte Hornets @ Toronto Raptors (10:40am)
Has thrived without RJ Barrett over the last couple of months and gets another opportunity against the Hornets without the former Knick in the line-up.
Immanuel Quickley averages 22.3 points from his last six games without Barrett, hitting 20+ points in five of those games. Most recently against the Wizards, Quickley finished with 21 points in just 26 minutes.
Neither team will have winning as a high priority in this, but Quickley should still play close to 30 minutes and will get them up against a Hornets team that concede points to point guards 9% above average over the last month.
SGM: Quickley Over 18.5 Points / Williams Over 23.5 PR / Barnes 6+ Rebounds = $4.75
Saturday NBA Multi
Pistons +6.5 / Nets +13.5 / Timberwolves = $4.78
