NBA Tips - Saturday, January 4 NBA Picks & Multi

Coming off a 27-point performance against the Lakers, Jarrett Allen gets a great look at this Mavericks outfit when the Cavs head to Dallas.

Best Bet

Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings (2:10pm)

DeMar DeRozan

Under 20.5 Points

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$1.80

Completely out of sorts, appears slightly injured, and the absence of Keegan Murray has no bearing on DeMar DeRozan’s output for the Kings.

DeRozan averages 14.6 points per game from his last eight, covering 20.5 points just once over this stretch – it required a 41-minute game against the Lakers where Sabonis got in foul trouble.

Playing the Power Forward spot in Murray’s absence, the Grizzlies concede points to PFs 7% below average over the last month. I just can’t see him finding any sort of form here against a quality Memphis team.

SGM – Grizzlies / Jackson Jr Under 24.5 Points/ DeRozan Under 20.5 Points = $7.50

Next Best

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Dallas Mavericks (12:40pm)

Jarrett Allen

Over 13.5 Points

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$2.02

Bigs against Dallas has become an interesting trend, considering they have two solid defensive centres in Gafford and Lively – but it appears they are focusing on rim protection on guard penetration opposed to containing their player 1 on 1.

The Mavericks are the easiest team for centres to score against over the last month, conceding points to bigs 23% above average.

Jarrett Allen enters this off the back of a 27-point performance against the Lakers and 22 points against the Nuggets two games prior to that. Although Allen had a dry spell prior to this, it appears he’s back now and should cover this line of 13.5 points.

SGM – Allen Over 13.5 Points / Mobley 15+ Points / Lively 8+ Rebounds = $4.33

Value Bet

Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors (11:40am)

Immanuel Quickley

8+ Assists

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$2.65

Barely played any basketball all season, and in his return after seven weeks on the sideline Immanuel Quickley produces 15 assists in Toronto’s win over Brooklyn.

We saw this from Quickley at the back end of last season after being traded to the Raptors, where he averaged 8.7 assists from his last 15 games, hitting 8+ assists in 60% of those games.

This is the balance that Toronto was hoping for in the pre-season with Barnes at Power Forward, Barrett on a wing and Quickley running the point. I think we’ll continue to see big assist games from the former Knick.

SGM – Raptors / Suggs 4+ Rebounds / Quickley Over 6.5 Assists = $5.50

Saturday NBA Multi

Pistons / Grizzlies
$3.64

Sports Journalist

Dale Crotty

Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.