Daniel Gafford has gone to another level since the injury to Dereck Lively, and he’ll look to continue his great run against the Pistons.
Best Bet
Dallas Mavericks @ Detroit Pistons (11:10am)
Continues to flourish in Lively and Kleber’s absence, going perfect from the field in his last start against the Pelicans finishing with 22 points.
In Gafford’s last 15 games without Lively he averages 17.1 points per game, but it’s his recent form which is most impressive averaging 18.9 points – this includes 12 and 8 against the Thunder when in foul trouble, and if you look at the other six games from this sample size which excludes the OKC games, he averages 21.8 points.
He gets another great look here – the Pistons are the fourth easiest team for centres to score against over the last month, conceding points 20% above average. Another big game on the cards.
SGM – Gafford Over 16.5 Points / Duren 10+ Rebounds / Dinwiddie Under 4.5 Assists = $4.33
Next Best
Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers (11:40am)
The resurrection of Russell Westbrook is one of the great stories this NBA season. Now at Denver, he’s made the point guard role his own moving into the starting line-up with Michael Malone giving Russ plenty of minutes lately.
Averaging a PRA of 28.5 over his last 13 games, Westbrook has seen his minutes move into the 30s playing 37 minutes last start against the Knicks and 35 the game prior against the Bulls.
This is great news for this PRA line – in Russ’ last 20 games this season where he’s played 28+ minutes his PRA average is 31.4 covering this line in 16 of those games, while in his last seven playing 28+ minutes his average PRA is at 34.
SGM – Murray 20+ Points / Westbrook Over 24.5 PRA / Jokic 8+ Assists = $3.75
Value Bet
LA Clippers @ Charlotte Hornets (11:10am)
Absolute beast for the Clippers this season, and another name you can add to the pile of LA Lakers rejects that have blossomed elsewhere.
Zubac’s last two games have been monstrous – he had 25 and 16 against the Suns two games back, and last start against Wemby and the Spurs he had 21 points and 22 rebounds.
It’s a great match-up against the Hornets here – they’re without Mark Williams, they traded Nick Richards, and now he’ll come up against Taj Gibson (yes he’s still in the league) and the 6’9 Moussa Diabate.
Charlotte is the third easiest team in the NBA over the last month for centres to score against at 21% above average – Zu should easily cover 14.5 points and is a huge chance for another 20+ point effort.
SGM – Clippers 11+ / Zubac 15+ Points / Jones Jr 10+ Points = $5.00
Saturday NBA Multi
Bucks / Raptors / Suns
$4.80
