The Bulls enter Saturday’s game off no rest, but look a nice price despite underdog status when they host the Indiana Pacers.
Best Bet
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors (2:10pm)
Steve Kerr was very critical of the second-year player in a post-game press conference a couple of games back and fairly so, but it does look like Kerr has put his faith in Podziemski as a starter going forward which makes this line too low.
BPod averages 12.7 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.9 assists as a starter this season – a PRA of 24.2 per game from seven starts. Two of those games were alongside Curry, where he covered the PRA of 18.5 on both occasions.
Although Kerr has been keen to go 12-deep for majority of the season, the Warriors had lost five straight games heading into Friday’s game against the Rockets, so I think we’ll start to see a bit more stability with this starting group.
In the eight games BPod has played 25+ minutes this season, he averages a PRA of 24.6 covering the line of 18.5 in all eight games. With Wiggins and Draymond both questionable, he should be playing 25+ here resulting in an easy cover.
SGM – Podziemski Over 18.5 PRA / Gobert Double Double / Randle 4+ Rebounds = $4.50
Next Best
Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls (12:10pm)
The Pacers continue to be priced as a good basketball team, which they are not. Indiana has the second worst coverage rate in the NBA this season at just 31.8%, while the third worst coverage as favourite at just 23.1%.
From their last ten games as favourite, Indiana has covered just once which includes failing to cover in their last seven games as favourites. It’s even worse when they’re favourites as the away team – they haven’t just failed to cover, but they’ve lost the last five games which includes to the Raptors twice, the Nets, the Pelicans and Hornets.
The Bulls are probably the best of that group, and have covered in four of their last six home games despite having an extremely tricky home run this season – they’ve played host to Boston, Memphis, Houston, Cleveland, Minnesota, Orlando and OKC this season so far.
This will be much easier, despite entering off no rest. The Pacers are in all sorts, and the Bulls look like they’re starting to figure this roster out a bit.
SGM – Bulls +3.5 / Siakam Under 22.5 Points / LaVine 4+ Assists = $5.00
Value Bet
Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs (12:10pm)
Mike Brown has gone full ‘break glass in case of emergency’ mode and thrown Malik Monk into the starting group.
Even playing with the high-usage types of Fox, Sabonis and DeRozan, Malik Monk is still a bucket and continuing to find his. In his first game as a starter, Monk had 19 points, and then has backed it up with 17 against a tough Houston defense, and on Friday dropped 23 on the Grizzlies.
As Brown likely fights for his job with Sacramento, expect Monk’s minutes to float around the mid-30s and if that happens I think we’ll see the combo guard score another 20+ against the Spurs.
SGM – Monk Over 17.5 Points / Sabonis 15+ Points / Murray Over 6.5 Rebounds = $4.33
Saturday NBA Multi
Magic / Trail Blazers / Bulls
$6.25