Win or go home – which two teams will slot into the eight-seed of their respective conferences with their season on the line?
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Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks (9:10am)
Surprised to see the Heat underdog in this as they finished the season like a freight train.
From the last 12 games of all teams in the NBA, Miami was ranked one in net rating on 14, with the Hawks ranked 13th in this category. In that 12-game run, it included a 10-point win over Atlanta with Herro going off for 36 points.
I know this is played in Atlanta, but the Hawks have barely claimed any scalps to finish the season. They beat Orlando in the last game but both teams rested their starters, before losing to the Magic in the play-in by 25 points a few days later. From their last ten wins, the scalps included Brooklyn, Philadelphia three times, Charlotte twice and Utah – these teams were legit trying to lose. This will be comfortable for the Heat with the 11+ a nice price at $4.60.
SGM: Heat / Herro 25+ Points / Gueye 4+ Rebounds = $4.20
Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies (11:40am)
Expect big minutes for Desmond Bane. Ja Morant is questionable after rolling his ankle against the Warriors, but even if he does play I think Bane has been playing well enough that he’ll be Memphis’ primary option.
Bane was great against Golden State playing 39 minutes, finishing with 30 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists, and last time he played the Mavericks he had a day out with 27 points, 16 rebounds and 6 assists.
The Mavericks appear to have shifted their identity with the return of all their bigs, with JKidd pushing Naji Marshall to the point, and playing Washington, AD and either Lively or Gafford together. This will likely give Memphis’ guards a great opportunity though, resulting in Bane getting of plenty of open looks or opportunity to penetrate off long close-outs.
Expect a big game.
SGM: Bane Over 32.5 PRA / Jackson Jr 18+ Points / Marshal Over 7.5 RA = $4.33
Saturday NBA Multi
Heat / Mavericks +6.5 = $3.62
