Luka Doncic has been posting some insane stat lines to start the season despite missing a couple of games through injury, and I don’t expect the party to stop now for the Slovenian.
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Best Bet
Miami Heat @ LA Lakers (1:40pm)
This is video-game stuff from Luka Doncic to start the season, which includes an injury thrown in between.
Doncic has averaging a ridiculous 45.3 points and 11.7 rebounds from his three games this season, and it’s been ultra-consistent with 43 points his lowest return.
The Heat concede points to point guards 3% above average and 10% above average in rebounds this season, and although they have some solid defensive players in their starting lineup, there’s no one that can guard Luka.
Next Best
Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets (10:10am)
No Embiid for the 76ers – but this is potentially a blessing, especially on the defensive end.
Philadelphia’s net rating this season with Embiid on is -6, which would have them ranked as the sixth worst team in the NBA with the worst defence in the league, but with him off the floor they’re at +8.6, which is the seventh best team in the competition.
When they played Orlando without Embiid, Maxey dropped 43 points, Edgecombe 26 and Oubre 25, and they clearly play at a more up-tempo level.
The Nets are bad – they’ve only got within 5.5 points of one team this season, and I can’t see them doing so against the 76ers.
Value Bet
Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers (10:10am)
Another team that are better without their ‘star’ player. We enter year 3 of me believing the Hawks are better without Trae Young, and with the Point Guard out for four weeks with a knee injury my point is about to be emphasised.
The Hawks have a net rating of -8.2 with Trae on the floor this season, which makes them the fifth worst team in the NBA – but when he’s off, Atlanta’s net rating jumps to 4.8 which would have them inside the top-ten.
Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson both had their best games of the season, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker continues to post good numbers at his new team. Although they’re playing in Cleveland, Mitchell, Allen and Merrill are questionable – that being said, I still think they can upset the Cavs with all three playing.
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