Two big men coming off their bench for their respective teams have been very impressive this series, and I’m expecting another big game from them in Game 3.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks (10:00am)
Best Bet
Has truly been a revelation this post-season for the Dallas Mavericks, with Dereck Lively producing the best +/- per minute of any player in the NBA that has played a minimum of 100 minutes this post-season.
This PR appears low with the consideration of Lively’s minutes increase, where he’s now taking 27 minutes coming off the bench with Gafford taking 21 as the starter.
When Lively has played at least 24 minutes this post-season in seven games, he averages a PR of 20.1 per game covering the line of 16.5 in six of those games. When playing less than 24 minutes in the other seven games, Lively’s average PR is just 12.1.
Lively has played 25+ minutes in five of his last six games averaging a PR of 20.6 over those games, covering in five of those. While his confidence is sky high, I’ll keep backing the big man in.
Value Bet
We took the 12+ as our value last start, and Naz Reid finished with a post-season high of 23 points scoring 15+ for the second time against the Mavs this series.
Although this is going back to Dallas, the Timberwolves really need to give Naz as much opportunity as possible. Playing 31 minutes last start, I expect Finch to do something similar again in Game 3 to keep their season alive.
With Derrick Jones and PJ Washington the corner threats in the Dallas system, I really think that the Timberwolves can afford to play Reid with both Gobert and Towns, packing the paint on Luka and Kyrie’s penetration while still spacing the floor offensively. Unsure whether Finch will go in that direction, but regardless Reid is not the problem for Minnesota and should continue to see big minutes.
SGM – Reid Over 11.5 Points / Lively Over 8.5 Points / Doncic 8+ Rebounds = $4.50
