NBA Tips – Monday, May 19 NBA Picks & Multi

What a series it’s been between the Thunder and Nuggets – who will advance to the Western Conference Finals?

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Denver Nuggets @ OKC Thunder (5:30am)

Best Bet

Michael Porter Jr
Under 16.5 PR

He’s been a complete disaster this post-season as he attempts to play through a shoulder injury.

Michael Porter Jr’s home form hasn’t set the world on fire but he’s not unplayable averaging 11.6 points and 6.9 rebounds, but on the road – well, he’s unplayable.

MPJ averages 6.8 points and 4.3 rebounds on the road these playoffs from six games, covering the line of 16.5 PR once. Specifically in this series at OKC, that average is just 4 points and 4.3 rebounds.

I think Adelman will go to alternative options from the bench – potentially more Strawther, who changed the game in Game 6.

Value Bet

Jalen Williams
6+ Rebounds

Shot the ball terribly in Game 6 and will be looking to redeem himself. I think we’ll see around 40 minutes from Jalen Williams in this one, which gives him a big opportunity to fill the stat sheet.

Williams averages 5.4 rebounds per game this post-season, but those numbers at home jump to 6.2 per game – despite his home minutes being just 32.6 per game compared to his away minutes closer to 38.

Hitting 6+ rebounds in three of his last four home games, and hitting 6+ rebounds in three of the six games against the Nuggets this series including the last two games, I think we’ll see Williams continue to contribute in different ways if his shot continues to struggle.

SGM

Denver +8.5 / MPJ Under 16.5 PR / Jalen Williams 4+ Rebounds = $5.00

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Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.