NBA Tips - Monday, May 18 NBA Picks & Multi

After the Cavs upset the Pistons in Game 5 with an overtime win, I don’t think anyone expected to be back at Detroit for Game 7. Can Cleveland close on the road, or will the Pistons be too strong at home?

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons (10:10am)

Best Bet

Paul Reed

Over 7.5 Points

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$1.91

He’s well and truly leapfrogged Isaiah Stewart this series, and he’s coming in hot on Jalen Duren’s minutes.

Paul Reed has the best net rating of all Pistons playing 10+ minutes per game this series at +18.6, as well as a plus-minus of +16 – while Jalen Duren has the worst plus-minus of all Pistons at -10.

Reed has scored 10+ in all four games he’s hit the court against the Cavs this series, with an average of 13.3 points. Bickerstaff took his team to enter him into Game 5, before playing Reed the entire last quarter and overtime, and in Game 6 in 16 minutes the big man scored 17 points.

Value Bet

Ausar Thompson

8+ Rebounds

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$2.20

Numbers were really strong in Detroit’s Game 6 win, but foul trouble only saw Thompson play 24 minutes – he still finished with nine rebounds in that time.

Thompson is averaging 7 rebounds a game this series, and although he’s only hit 8+ rebounds in two of the six games, he’s always been around the mark hitting seven rebounds in three of those four misses.

With this being a Game 7, the screws tighten up offensively for both teams resulting in lower scoring and FG%, and more rebound opportunities for the likes of Thompson.

SGM

Reed Over 7.5 Points / Thompson 6+ Rebounds / Harden 15+ Points = $3.50

Sports Journalist

Dale Crotty

Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.