The Utah Jazz are fielding a G-League team – but someone has to score for them? Can Brice Sensabaugh continue his hot streak for the Jazz?
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Best Bet
Detroit Pistons @ Toronto Raptors (6:40am)
The favourite to take out this season’s Most Improved Player has posted some huge stat lines lately – as well as some poor stat lines, which is why we get a reduced rebound line against the Raptors.
Duren averages 11.3 rebounds per game since the All Star break, and has had some shockers – but a combination of foul trouble or blowouts has taken its toll. He had 7 rebounds in just 12 minutes against the Spurs, and 10 in 15 minutes against the 76ers – and as a result, Duren’s per-36 minute rebound numbers over this 12-game stretch at 14.9.
I don’t think we’ll see a blowout against the Raptors in Toronto, who concede rebounds to centres 14% above average over the last month.
Next Best
Golden State Warriors @ New York Knicks (11:10am)
Steve Kerr, renowned for going 12-deep in his rotation, won’t know what to do with himself when the Warriors play the Knicks with only 10 fit players, including someone on a 10-day contract.
As a result, I really like this line for Gary Payton II with an increased role. Payton is averaging 11.8 points from his last 13 games, hitting 10+ points in 10 of those games.
The most impressive thing for Payton is his points per-36 minutes during this stretch, going at 21.5 – and although we won’t see Payton hit 36 minutes in this, 25 isn’t out of the question.
Playing 24+ minutes in five games this season, Payton averages 14 points, so the 15+ is in play paying $5.10.
Value Bet
Utah Jazz @ Sacramento Kings (1:10pm)
The Jazz has pretty much sent the entire team into surgery early, and Sensabaugh is now the only recognised scorer for Utah.
Since February 12, when Sensabaugh has played 25+ minutes he’s averaged 23.6 points across seven games, where he’s hit 25+ points in four of those games including the last two.
Coming off 31 points in 29 minutes against Portland, Sensabaugh loses both Filipowski and Ace Bailey from that rotation when the Jazz play the Kings – the only thing stopping him will be Will Hardy’s highly questionable rotation.
Monday NBA Multi
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