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The Christmas Day NBA slate is upon us, with five of the most anticipated regular season match-ups of the season crammed into one massive day.
76ers @ Knicks (4:10am)
The 76ers are flying – something many expected much earlier in the season, but they’ve now certainly found their rhythm winning their last seven games.
They head to Madison Square Garden on Christmas Day to face the Knicks, who have just dropped their last two of the back of an eight-game win streak – but the Garden is a bit of a happy hunting ground for the 76ers.
Philadelphia has won eight of the last nine against the Knicks at New York, and although last time they met earlier in the season was won by New York, the 76ers were minus Joel Embiid and James Harden, who just combined for 64 points, 18 rebounds and 24 assists against the Clippers.
A lot will stem on Embiid in this contest who has an exceptional record against the Knicks across his career at 14-1. With the big Cameroonian averaging 30 points and 14.3 rebounds from his three previous Christmas Day games, expect him to setup a road win to extend Philadelphia’s win streak to eight.
SGM – Quentin Grimes 10+ Points / Julius Randle 10+ Rebounds / James Harden 10+ Assists = $4.75
Lakers @ Mavericks (6:40am)
It was a fairly ordinary showing by the Lakers at home against the Charlotte Hornets going down by four points, and now they head to Dallas to face Luka and the Mavs.
Dallas has not exactly set the world on fire of late winning just four of their last nine, just scraping by the Rockets off the back of a 50-piece from Luka. With both teams slightly unpredictable, the total points is the play here.
The Lakers are conceding enormous point totals on the road, at 126.9 points from their last nine road games, and as a result eight of their last nine road games have gone overs.
Four of Dallas’ last six home games have gone overs, while historically four of the last six times the Lakers have played at Dallas have also gone overs. With the Lakers defence falling the last 12 games where they concede the most points per game to opposition, this should be a high-scoring affair.
SGM – Luka Doncic 30+ Points / Russell Westbrook 6+ Rebounds / Luka Doncic 8+ Assists = $3.60
Bucks @ Celtics (9:10am)
They haven’t been great of late, but off the back of some Jaylen Brown last quarter heroics against Minnesota, the Celtics regained their winning touch which is vital heading into Christmas Day where they’ll host the Bucks.
In what could be a potential Eastern Conference Final, in this case everything points towards Boston. Home court is vital in this – reason being, the Bucks have only covered the line twice in their last 11 road games. This includes a slacking to the Nets on Saturday.
The Celtics historically appear to have the edge on the Bucks – they’ve covered in 12 of their last 14 games with Milwaukee which includes last season’s playoff series, and on their home floor against the Bucks, the Celtics have covered in six of the last eight.
SGM – Giannis Antetokounmpo 30+ Points / Jaylen Brown 6+ Rebounds / Jayson Tatum 4+ Assists = $3.50
Grizzlies @ Warriors (12:10pm)
Huge road win by the Grizzlies at Phoenix last start, and they head to Golden State as favourites with the defending champs without Steph Curry.
Although Memphis is a deserved favourite, it’s hard to look past the Warriors at home. They own one of the best home records in the NBA at 12-2, covering the spread in 71.4% of home games – ranked fourth in the league.
Despite Saturday’s whitewash of a dysfunctional Phoenix minus Devin Booker, the Grizzlies still remain the second worst coverage road team in the NBA at just 26.7%, only doing so in three of their last 13 road games.
With Andrew Wiggins expected to return, Golden State should cover on their home floor and are a nice price to win paying $2.60.
SGM – Jordan Poole 25+ Points / Jaren Jackson Jr 15+ Points / Ja Morant 8+ Assists = $4.75
Suns @ Nuggets (2:40pm)
A lot of this stems on the health of Devin Booker, as the Suns have been shocking without him, which puts the Nuggets in the box seat on their home floor.
This season Phoenix is 1-4 without Booker, only covering in their win against the Lakers (enough said), but there’s also concerns on their road record against quality opposition this season. As visitors against teams with a record above .500 the Suns are 3-6, only covering the line in their wins and failing to do so in all six losses.
The Nuggets tend to bring their A-game when facing quality opposition on their home floor, with a 4-2 record when hosting teams above .500 with five of those games going unders.
Winning seven of their last eight at home including their last five with an average margin differential of 10.5 points, I believe this will be a real statement game by the Nuggets.
SGM – Aaron Gordon 15+ Points / Bones Hyland 10+ Points / Jamal Murray 6+ Assists = $4.00
Monday NBA Multi
76ers/Mavericks/Celtics/Warriors/Nuggets = $14.52
