We’re four games into the playoffs, and now we get the other half of teams playing their first playoff game of the post-season.
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Best Bet
Phoenix Suns @ OKC Thunder (5:40am)
We get the low points line because the Suns are heading to OKC in what will likely be a blowout, but there’s no denying what Jalen Green is doing at the moment.
Green had 35 points in Phoenix’s loss to the Blazers, and then backed it up with 36 in their elimination game against the Warriors.
Since March 6, Green is averaging 24.7 points per game when playing at least 20 minutes, covering this line in 15 of those 18 games. Even though minutes will likely be down on what we’ve seen the last two games with the blowout risk, he’s an absolute bucket at the moment and should cover this.
Next Best
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs (11:10am)
If Wemby’s last month of basketball is anything to go by, we’re going to get a monster performance from the Frenchman in his playoff debut.
In his last 17 games dating back to March 5, Wemby is averaging 29.4 points and 12.5 rebounds for a PR of 41.9 – here’s the scary part now. Wemby is averaging just 29 minutes a game during this period, with his per-36 minute numbers reading 35.9 points and 15.3 rebounds.
Centres have had great success against Portland this season, especially from deep shooting triples 28% above average over the last month. I think we’ll see a monster from the Frenchman.
Value Bet
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics (3:10am)
Neemias Queta is definitely the primary centre in this Boston rotation, and has played well when they’ve been at full strength with both Tatum and Vucevic.
Queta averages 15.3 points from the three games Boston has been full strength, hitting double digits in all three games.
When the big man played the 76ers in their last meeting, he finished with 27 points and 17 rebounds. Don’t expect this again, but the price for another double digits performance is great value in this.
