The most anticipated day of NBA regular season basketball on the calendar with five big games across Christmas Day in the States. We’ve got you covered with a best bet and SGM for each game targeting some big names!
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks (4:10am)
I’m banking on us seeing Thibs go into ‘big-game’ minutes mode, where he rides his starting group for 40+ minutes regardless of the scoreline.
With that in mind, I like the Josh Hart PRA line in this. Hart averages a PRA of 27.4 this season, but when he plays 34+ minutes that line jumps to 30.4 across 19 games, covering the PRA of 24.5 at an 89% coverage rate.
The Spurs are conceding rebounds to small forwards 14% above average and assists at 4% above average over the last month, and with Hart putting together a well-rounded season for the Knicks he should be covering this line with the minutes increase.
SGM – Knicks / Champagnie Over 7.5 Points / Hart Over 24.5 PRA / Paul Over 11.5 RA = $7.25
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks (6:40am)
A weirdly low rebound-line for Luka and one I’m very confident he’ll cover when he faces the Timberwolves in a Western Conference Finals rematch.
Doncic has missed a few games with injury, but in the seven games he’s played in December he’s averaged 10.1 rebounds recording double digits in five of those games. Last start against the Trail Blazers, Luka only managed 7 rebounds but played just 29 minutes in a blowout.
Minutes will increase in an important Western Conference match-up with Minnesota, who are conceding rebounds to point guards 8% above average over the last month. Doncic had 8 when they met last start, and I expect that to be the minimum in this Christmas Day match-up.
SGM – Reid 10+ Points / Doncic 8+ Rebounds / McDaniels 4+ Rebounds = $4.20
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics (9:10am)
Was a late scratching last start against Orlando due to illness, and although he’s no guarantee to suit-up for Boston’s match-up with the 76ers, if he does I think we see Tatum go large.
Tatum averages a PRA of 43.8 for the season with a 65% coverage rate, with his PRA over the last seven games jumping to 47.6.
Averaging a PRA of 44.9 in his last 9 games against the 76ers covering in six of those games, there’s no reason why we can’t see a similar PRA in this if declared fit.
SGM – Celtics / Tatum Over 40.5 PRA / George 15+ Points = $3.60
LA Lakers @ Golden State Warriors (12:10pm)
A bit of a slump for Curry at the moment who is struggling to string big games together.
Steph averages 20.9 points from his last 13 games this season, scoring 25+ points in just four of those games, and failing to hit 20+ points in three of his last five.
Curry has played in his fair share of Christmas Day games across his career, ten to be exact, but surprisingly has struggled only averaging 15.6 points per game scoring 20+ just the once. I have no doubt JJ Redick and the Lakers have a plan for Steph, and based on current form it’s hard to see the Warrior covering in this.
SGM – Lakers +3.5 / Curry Under 24.5 Points / Wiggins 15+ Points = $4.50
Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns (2:40pm)
Was our best bet on Tuesday and for good reason – the 3x MVP made a mockery of Jusuf Nurkic clearing the points line finishing with 32, but only needed 29 minutes to do so which wiped away our chances of hitting the 40+ mark.
Jokic gets the Nurkic look once again on Christmas Day, and with the return of Jamal Murray I’ll be taking the PA of 39.5. Although he failed to cover this in Tuesday’s match-up finishing with a PA of 39, the minutes have to increase in this next match-up.
The Joker averages a PA of 40.9 over the last 18 games, but during this stretch when he plays 35+ minutes that PA jumps to 43.9 producing 40+ in nine of those 14 games.
To Nurkic’s credit, he actually does a good job of keeping Jokic off the glass with the Serbian only recording 10+ rebounds three of their last ten meetings, so the PA is the play here and will avoid any rebound bets for the Joker.
SGM – Nuggets / Jokic Over 39.5 PA / Jones 10+ Points = $3.75
Christmas Day NBA Multi
Knicks / Mavericks / Celtics / Lakers / Nuggets
$9.71
