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Both Philadelphia and Dallas come into the second round of the playoffs as big underdogs but there looks to be value in following them both in Game 1.
Mavericks @ Suns (12:00pm)
Dallas +6.0 ($1.90)
The square play here is without question laying the points and backing the Suns to continue the domination that they’ve had over the Mavericks in recent times.
Phoenix swept the season series and haven’t lost to Dallas since late 2019 but this is clearly the best iteration of the Luka-led Mavericks that we’ve seen.
Dallas has improved from 20th to sixth in defensive rating this season and while they may struggle with the size of the Suns, their ability to take and make threes should hold them in good stead.
The Mavericks went 25-17 ATS when on the road this season. That number reads better than the Suns’ home record ATS of 19-22, which shows that they were a touch overvalued by the market.
Same Game Multi
Jalen Brunson 20+ Points
Deandre Ayton 12+ Rebounds
Chris Paul 10+ Assists
76ers @ Heat (9:00am)
James Harden Over 34.5 Points & Assists ($1.81)
The Heat are no stranger to exaggerating when it comes to the health of their roster but that doesn’t change the fact that their injury report reads about as well Doc Rivers’ playoff resume.
With the uncertainty surrounding the health of Miami and the absence of Joel Embiid, the play for mine here is riding with James Harden.
After a disastrous Game 5 for Philadelphia, the Sixers found their range to put the Raptors away behind the beard’s best game of the playoffs so far (22 points & 15 assists).
No Embiid will undoubtedly see Doc Rivers ratchet up Harden’s usage rate as Philly looks to steal one of the first two games and they should consider themselves a chance with Lowry already ruled out and questions marks hanging over the availability of Jimmy Butler and PJ Tucker among others.
Same Game Multi
James Harden 3+ 3PM
Tobias Harris 8+ Rebounds
Bam Adebayo 4+ Assists