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The home and away nature of the playoffs often lends itself to opportunities to back teams that are more suited in the postseason. Today is no exception.
Jazz @ Mavericks (11:30am)
Dallas -3 ($1.90)
The return of Luka Doncic and the impact that he has on the pace of the game makes it difficult to get excited by player props here but Dallas is clearly the superior team in this series and the prospect of only laying three points at home is too hard to pass up.
Rudy Gobert and Utah have had their way with the Mavericks so far this series when it comes to rebounding and Dallas has still found a way to keep themselves in this series.
They’ve shot 51 more threes than the Jazz and their ability to hoist the most valuable shot in basketball continues to keep them in games even when the shooting isn’t there.
Dallas’s defence has been largely solid in the four games so far and may well have taken a 3-1 advantage into this one if not for some questionable calls down the stretch.
The Jazz shot 44 free throws in Game 4 and I can’t imagine they will get anywhere near that here. Dallas now have the best player on the court without question and I’m betting they will crack the code of the Utah defence once more.
Same Game Multi
Under 213.5 Total Points
Celtics @ Nets (9:00am)
Boston H2H ($2.00)
Kevin Durant is arguably the greatest scoring forward of all time but this Boston defence is something else. According to Second Spectrum, 95.6% of Durant’s shots have been contested in this series.
That is absurd.
Durant has consistently taken low-percentage shots this series but those are shots that KD typically makes. Not in this series. Durant is shooting worse than the average player and when your best is struggling as much from the field as he is, you have no chance against a team as good as the Celtics.
The value is clearly with Boston here. Brooklyn simply cannot get stops and even if the Celtics struggle mightily from the field, I can’t see the Nets going on a run that will put this one beyond doubt. Take the value.
Same Game Multi
Jayson Tatum 30+ Points
Bruce Brown 15+ Points
Raptors @ 76ers (10:00am)
James Harden 12+ Assists / 76ers To Win ($4.00)
Philadelphia should simply close the series here but for mine there is little to no value in the line or total.
Enter James Harden.
Harden is averaging 9.8 assists in 40.3 minutes per game so far this series and his assists line has been set at 9.5 in this one. The Beard should certainly give that a shake but $4 for 12 assists and a 76ers win is certainly worth thought too.
Harden has hit 12 or more assists in five of his last 10 and has cut down his turnovers from 4.4 per game in the regular season to 3.3 in the postseason so far.
If you’re looking for value in this game, this play is right at the top of the list.
Same Game Multi
James Harden 10+ Assists
Tobias Harris 15+ Points
Joel Embiid Over 3.5 Turnovers
Boston H2H / Dallas H2H = $3.21