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The Phoenix Suns were clinical in Games 1 and 2 led by the Point God, and we should expect another masterclass from CP3 in Game 3.
Best Bet
Suns @ Mavericks (11:30am)
Chris Paul Over 31.5 PRA ($1.86)
An insanely low PRA line for Chris Paul who takes it to another level in the post-season, and based on Monty Williams’ offensive strategy against the Mavericks we should see him cover the 31.5 PRA line once again.
CP3 averages a PRA of 37.1 in the post-season, with a median PRA of 40.5 from an eight-game sample, covering the PRA in 6 of his eight games. Although he only managed a PRA of 27 in Game 1, Paul only played the 29 minutes which won’t be the case when Phoenix travel to Dallas for Game 3.
Expect Phoenix to once again screen Doncic into defending the ball at every opportunity, which worked a treat in Game 2 resulting in the Suns scoring 129 and Paul finishing with 28 points, 6 rebounds and 8 assists.
Expect the Mavericks to change this up slightly to avoid putting Luka on an island against CP3, but regardless expect Paul to cover this PRA. Although his assists are down this series resulting in his assists line dropping to 8.5 this game, his points and rebounds are up – these markets have not moved so don’t be surprised to see a PRA of 35+.
Same Game Multi
Chris Paul Over 17.5 Points
Cam Johnson 10+ Points
Deandre Ayton 15+ Points
$5.25
Next Best
Heat @ 76ers (9:00am)
Bam Adebayo Over 31.5 PRA ($1.80)
Do we take Miami -2.5 or go back to the well on Bam Adebayo? Fairly confident on both of these plays, but considering we’re getting Bam one point and rebound better off than we did in Game 2 – which he covered with ease, we’ll back in Bam once again.
Joel Embiid will miss Game 3 which means Bam will continue to feast – he’s averaging 23 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assists in his last three games where the Heat have played the Sixers without Embiid.
Due to the match-up against the combination of Deandre Jordan and Paul Reed, Bam is shooting the ball at a very strong clip this series at 71.4% from the field and is getting to the free throw line at will – 19 times in two games so far. With an average PRA of 37.5 this series and still no clear match-up for the big man, expect Bam to cover his PRA once again.
Same Game Multi
Heat -2.5
Bam Adebayo Over 18.5 Points
Jimmy Butler 4+ Assists
$3.75
