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The home team has come out victors in every game of both of these second-round series – can the Suns and Heat sneak a road win in Game 4 and head back home with a 3-1 series lead?
Heat @ 76ers (10:00am)
Under 207.5 Total Points ($1.85)
Even if Joel Embiid wasn’t at his best in Game 3, there is no denying his influence on this series by generating extra attention on the offensive end, and clearly filling an enormous hole on the defensive end with Bam Adebayo finishing with just 9 points and 3 rebounds.
The Heat and 76ers have played seven times this season now, and in five of them the total points has gone unders including a total of just 178 in Game 3. But there’s a strong correlation of the Embiid influence in these games with Miami, with both pace on the offensive end and limiting Miami’s offensive output.
In the three games Embiid hasn’t played against the Heat this season, it has gone overs twice with the average total points at 213 in those games. But in the four games Embiid has played, all four have gone under the total points averaging just 190.8 – all four under the line set for Game 4 at 207.5.
Both teams have been strong defensively across the season, and with Bam’s offensive output limited by Joel plus Tyler Herro playing through an ankle injury, expect a Game 4 grind. Great value in the alternate total points market for under 190.5 at $6.
Same Game Multi
Tyrese Maxey 20+ Points
Joel Embiid 10+ Rebounds
Jimmy Butler Over 6.5 Rebounds
Suns @ Mavericks (5:30am)
Jae Crowder Over 17.5 PRA ($1.78)
Some real concerning elements for the Suns in their Game 3 loss to the Mavericks, so we can expect Monty Williams to rely on what he can trust in Game 4 in an attempt to sneak a road win and return to Phoenix up 3-1.
One of those players that Williams trusts is Jae Crowder. He’s been huge on both the offensive and defensive end this series, being one of the Suns who has the job of restricting Luka. There was certainly the view that Crowder will be splitting minutes with Cam Johnson in the four-spot, but based on Game 3 where the 6th Man of the Year nominee only played 16 minutes compared to Crowder’s 35, we know Williams is leaning towards the veteran this series.
Crowder’s PRA over the last seven games has averaged 20.7, well above his line of 17.5 for Game 4, but it’s his form in this Dallas series which gives us confidence. In three games so far Crowder’s average PRA has been 26, averaging 15 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists.
We should see Crowder continue to get plenty of opportunities on the offensive end with the Mavericks attempting to hide Luka on him, and in a game the Suns will be desperate to win we should expect another big output from Crowder.
Same Game Multi
Jae Crowder 10+ Points
Chris Paul 15+ Points
Luka Doncic 30+ Points
Jae Crowder 10+ Points / Jimmy Butler 6+ Rebounds = $2.73