NBA Playoffs Tips – Mavericks @ Warriors Predictions – Game 2

Luka Doncic - NBA Tips

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Off the back of a thrashing in Game 1, what can we expect from Dallas in Game 2? Expect the pace to slow right down in this one.

Tune in from 11:00am for Dallas v Golden State on Kayo.

Best Bet

Under 214
Total Points

Taking the unders based on how the Mavericks have gone about it this year. Since January 1 this year, Dallas has played in the lowest scoring games of all teams with an average total points of 213.4 per game.

As a result, from their last 61 Mavericks games the total points has gone over in just 39.3% – the lowest coverage rate of all teams in 2022. Within the playoffs only 5 of Dallas’ 14 games have gone over the total points line, with the average total points dropping to 207.5 in the post-season but the median value of the 14 games dropping further to 199 total points.

Eleven of Dallas’ 14 post-season games have been 214 or under including Game 1 which landed at 199 total points – the pace that they play at the main contributor to this. The Mavericks play at the slowest pace of the four remaining teams at 92.8 – in comparison the Grizzlies were at 102.7 as the second fastest, which resulted in the average total points in their series with the Warriors coming to 221.3.

Dallas will want to continue playing on their terms after a disappointing Game 1, and with the average total points in five games between these teams this season being 209 we should see it land around that mark in Game 2.

Next Best

Kevon Looney 3+

Unusual market, but Kevon Looney does produce reasonable assist numbers when he gets opportunity on the floor.

Looney is a key piece in this series for the Warriors, ensuring the Mavericks don’t go small with his presence on the glass as we saw in Game 6 against the Grizzlies where the big man had 22 rebounds. He shores Golden State up defensively with another strong body which is required against Luka Doncic – if the Warriors were to go with Curry, Thompson and Poole together at once it would play into Dallas’ hands on the offensive end.

As a result, we should see Looney on the floor for at least 25 minutes – he played 28 in a Game 1 blowout. When he plays 25+ minutes, Looney averages 3 assists per game this season from a 27-game sample size, but it’s heavily skewed on recent form.

From his last 11 games playing 25+ minutes he averages 3.8 assists, recording 3+ in 10 of his last 11. If he plays what we think he will, he clears.

Same Game Multi

Jordan Poole Under 16.5 Points / Andrew Wiggins 15+ Points / Reggie Bullock 2+ Threes = $3.50

With Looney’s minutes increasing it will likely be at the expense of Jordan Poole. Poole played 26 minutes in Game 1, but 7 of those minutes were in the last quarter which may not be the case if the game is tight. Was super-efficient from his 12 shot attempts in Game 1, but in the last three games of the Memphis series he failed to cover 16.5 points.

Andrew Wiggins on the other hand has the defensive job on Luka Doncic, so expect bulk minutes for the Canadian. Wiggins played 35 minutes in Game 1 scoring 19 points, now scoring 15+ points in 6 of his last 7 games. Reggie Bullock continues to launch from deep – he had 10 attempts in Game 1, which has him averaging 2.7 triples made from 7.1 three point attempts per game this post-season. He’ll continue to get them up.

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Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.