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Both the Heat and Suns look to close the series on the road in Game 6, but expect a response from Luka Doncic on his home floor.
Suns @ Mavericks (11:30am)
Luka Doncic 10+ Rebounds ($1.80)
With the Mavericks going smaller and trying to stretch the Suns on the offensive end with Maxi Kleber, expect Luka’s rebound numbers to remain high.
Averaging 9.2 per 36 minutes this series, we expect Doncic to play 40+ minutes in a ‘win or go home’ clash for Dallas. The next best rebounder for the Mavericks per 36 this series is Jalen Brunson with 5.2 – Kleber comes in 3rd with just 5, with his purpose to box out and keep Ayton off the offensive glass, resulting in Doncic to swoop in and clean up Phoenix’s misses.
Doncic has had double figure rebounds in three of the five games this series including 11 in 35 minutes last game, but we should expect minutes similar to that of Game 1 where he played 44 which resulted in a 12-rebound game.
Expect the Mavericks to be less predictable on the offensive end in Game 6, which means there’s value in a Luka triple double paying $4.40.
Same Game Multi
Luka Doncic 10+ Rebounds
Devin Booker 25+ Points
Dorian Finney-Smith 10+ Points
Heat @ 76ers (9:00am)
Tyrese Maxey Under 19.5 Points ($1.78)
Since Joel Embiid returned this series, Tyrese Maxey’s output has expectedly taken a bit of a hit despite his points line still at the 19.5 mark.
Maxey averaged 18.5 shot attempts across the first two games of the series, and was even at the 15 per game mark in the Toronto series, but with how well the Heat defend combined with Embiid’s return Maxey only averages 10.3 shot attempts from the last three games.
The combo-guard’s usage has also taken an expected hit, going from 27 in games 1 and 2 to 17.6 for the remainder of the series. Even his 21 points in Game 3 was a second-half purple patch, scoreless at the half.
Even Harden’s usage has increased from 25 without Embiid in the first two games, to 27.9 with Embiid this series. With the 76ers averaging just 99 points per game this series, hard to see Maxey producing 20% of these with all key indicators heading south for the 2nd year guard.
Same Game Multi
Tyrese Maxey Under 20.5 Points
Jimmy Butler 25+ Points
James Harden 6+ Rebounds
Heat v 76ers Under 207.5 Total Points / Mavericks +2.5 = $3.60