Collin Morikawa missed the cut at TPC Sawgrass last week but that may well work to his advantage this week.
Best Bet
Collin Morikawa ($13)
Two-time major winner who was disappointing at The Players but that may work out well having not to endure a long weekend that saw a Monday finish. To succeed here, good iron play is king while avoiding trouble is necessary.
Morikawa ranks 3rd in GIR, 5th in Bogey Avoidance, 8th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 9th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and 13th in Strokes Gained: Approach.
The key correlation tournaments here are the Sony Open and the John Deere Classic. Morikawa finished Top 7 in the 2019 John Deere Classic and 2021 Sony Open.
Mid-Tier Bet
Tyrell Hatton ($29)
Englishman who looks to be on the precipice of returning to form. He was very good at The Players for a long time but just couldn’t make a drive when it mattered. Hatton now has Top 13 finishes in four of his last five worldwide starts.
Hatton leads the Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting while he ranks 10th in Par 3 Scoring. Ranks Top 15 in Bermuda putting to boot. Profiles very nicely.
Value Bet
Russell Knox ($71)
Scotsman who loves tough conditions with a quality T-6 at The Players last week. With a strong course record at Copperhead, he has to be considered a strong play this week.
Knox has Top 24 finishes at his last three starts here. He ranks 2nd in GIR and 14th in Par 5 Scoring. Finished 7th at the recent Sony Open as well. Looks excellent value.
Prop Bet
Top South African Player – Louis Oosthuizen ($1.83)
It is impossible to look past Louis Oosthuizen’s record here at Copperhead. Oosthuizen has the fourth lowest scoring average on the course since 2015 with Top 16 finishes in his last four starts here including a runner-up finish in 2019. With only three countrymen to beat, he looks excellent value.
