Golf Betting Tips
1. Horses for Courses
The biggest determinant of how successful a player will be in a tournament is the course. Different games suit different courses. Long courses generally shoot big drivers. Tight courses bring accuracy from the tee into play. Some courses favour those who like to cut the ball. Others favour faders. Understanding the key drivers of success at a course and then finding players that fit that profile is an excellent starting point for your golf betting.
2. Green Grass Should Not Be Forgotten
Putting statistics are generally a very good guide to finding who is best on the green. To find a tournament winner though it is absolutely necessary to find who putts well on a particular surface. Putting on poa annua is a very different proposition to putting on bermuda which in turn is different to bentgrass and paspalum. A quick look at strokes gained: putting on each surface shows just how important this is.
3. Correlation Courses Can Lead To Gems
Course form is generally the natural starting point when breaking down a tournament but looking at courses that favour a particular profile can be an excellent guide. Some seem natural. When doing form for the Open Championship, links form in the Scottish Open and Irish Open is, of course, helpful. The same is true for West Coast golf in the US and desert golf. There are other nuggets though that strong research will help including Riviera form holding up very well at Augusta. Understanding golf course architects and their style can be a good guide too.
4. Favourites (Not Named Tiger) Are Poison
Betting on a favourite in a golf tournament not named Tiger Woods is generally ill advisable. Woods, arguably the greatest of all-time, has 82 PGA Tour wins, 41 European Tour wins and 24 other tournament victories. He was value even at the $4-$5 quote he often was. World No.1 Jon Rahm has just 13 professional wins yet regularly starts at $10 or shorter. Avoid favourites.
5. The Pros Bet Head-to-Heads and Top 20s
While everyone loves to win big for a small outlay, most golf tournaments have between 120 and 156 starters. Finding the winner is very hard. Professional golf bettors prefer the slow grind and small margin that head-to-heads, in particular, offer. Fancying someone in a tournament can be very profitable even if they miss the cut. Give yourself a chance to stay in the game by looking at the less sexy markets.
6. Know Your Weather
Weather has a major impact on a golf tournament and due to the lengthy nature of a tournament, it can have a different impact on different players. The most obvious here is the morning/afternoon and afternoon/morning Thursday/Friday splits. If the weather turns markedly on a Thursday afternoon and holds, those with a late day one tee time are severely disadvantaged. Wind is the biggest element to watch for. It can cause chaos off the tee and with long irons and can really speed up a green. Understanding weather conditions is critical to succeeding in golf betting.
7. Strokes Gained Stats Are The Ones That Count
Some sports lack a deep statistical foundation. Golf is not one of those sports. Golf has stats, stats and more stats. Historically those have been totals and averages but the key ones to understand are the strokes gained family that provide context to a player’s performance that in essence show who is the best at different facets of the game.
8. In-Play To Make Hay
Golf tournaments generally last four days and take a significant amount of time. There are many competitors spread across a big golf course. Opportunities constantly bob up to bet in-play on the tournament winner all the way up to the final few holes. Tournaments change complexion very quickly. Big leads can fade. Those on the cutline can go on to win. Taking advantage of in-play opportunities is a really critical component to finding winning golf betting tips.
9. Don’t Blindly Back Anyone
Take emotion out of golf betting. Blindly following any particular player or set of players can be a very expensive exercise. Even the best golfers not named Tiger Woods do not win a lot of tournaments. Some go years without a victory. Many of the top players win just once or twice a year. Following a single player hoping he or she will eventually win is a very unsophisticated and likely unsuccessful approach to wagering on golf.
10. Look for Unfashionable Types
Bookmakers know they will get plenty of action on big names. It is why the likes of Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas are always so short. Backing international players on the PGA Tour, particularly Asian players, as well as older players and boring types will give you much better value.
