BBL 15 Tips - Melbourne Stars v Melbourne Renegades

The first Melbourne Derby of the season sees the 4-1 Stars square off with the 1-3 Renegades in what could be a record Big Bash crowd.

Head to Head

Chasing Team

Head to Head

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TBC

The numbers are screaming to back the chasing team here, with both sides’ results closely following the bat flip.

All four of the Stars’ wins have come when winning the toss and chasing. The Renegades’ lone win also came when they won the flip and chased, while all three of their losses have come when batting first.

The trends are hard to ignore. The Stars have lost each of their last five matches when batting first as favourites. The Renegades have lost 13 of their last 14 when batting first. The chasing team has won 10 of the last 13 at the MCG, and 16 of the last 22 Big Bash matches overall.

The Stars have been outstanding this season, suffering just their first loss on Friday night in Brisbane after a remarkable late collapse.

There was optimism around a Renegades revival this season with a powerful top six and a bowling attack boosted by the arrivals of Jason Behrendorff and AJ Tye. It has not quite clicked yet, but once again their results have closely followed the toss.

The best approach here is to wait until the toss. The Renegades in particular shape as a solid bet as underdogs if they get the chance to chase.

Best Bet

Sam Harper

Over Runs Line

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$1.90

It has been a stunning turnaround for the keeper-batter who has been dreadful in the last two seasons, averaging just 5 and 14 in BBL 13 and 14 respectively. Harper has now scored 25+ runs in four straight matches, including an unbeaten century and a half-century.

Value Bet

Glenn Maxwell

50+ Runs

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TBC

Maxwell disappointed in Brisbane, but this shapes as a prime bounce-back spot at the MCG, where he has scored 50+ in two of his last three innings. He is yet to bat at the venue this season and typically thrives on the big stage like the derby.

Same Game Multi

Chasing Team H2H / Harper 20+ Runs / Siddle & Behrendorff 1+ Wickets

Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.