A Swan still remains well clear of the chasing pack, but our best bet comes at double figures after Round 5.
Brownlow Leaderboard
| Player | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1. I.Heeney (Syd) | 11.75 | $6.00 |
| 2. C.Petracca (Mel) | 7.50 | $9.75 |
| 3. T.Green (GWS) | 7.25 | $8.00 |
| 3. C.Serong (Fre) | 7.25 | $11.00 |
| 5. Z.Butters (PA) | 6.50 | $18.00 |
| 5. P.Cripps (Carl) | 6.50 | $19.00 |
Best Bet
Should well and truly be shorter than the $11 on offer – Caleb Serong should be the second favourite in the market here. Serong will likely poll in Fremantle’s loss to the Power, and with West Coast next up he can cut into Heeney’s lead.
The Dockers midfielder polled five votes across two games against the Eagles last year, with 35 touches in their Round 3 win backed up by 30 disposals in their win in Round 22.
In Round 7 Serong will face the Bulldogs where he averaged 36.5 disposals from two games last season, so if we see his 2023 form against both the Eagles and Bulldogs translate to 2024, he’ll be right next to Heeney in no time.
Lay
Well aware of the Bont’s polling capabilities and he can consider himself extremely unlucky not to have at least one Brownlow, but really needs the Dogs to produce wins if he’s any chance and there’s no guarantee of that over the next fortnight.
The Bulldogs come up against two extremely defensive outfits in consecutive weeks in St Kilda and the Dockers. With Sam Durham providing the blueprint on Friday Night, think we’ll see Marcus Windhager do a similar job in Thursday Night’s clash.
The following week, I can’t see the Bulldogs knocking off the Dockers over in Perth – so if we see Bont failing to poll the next two weeks, he could quite easily be 10 votes off the pace after Round 7 and we’ll likely see a price around $16-$18 instead.
Value Bet
With 27 votes last year, I think Zak Butters will be the best Brownlow chance coming from the Power instead of teammate Connor Rozee.
Although it wasn’t a standout performance by Butters in Port Adelaide’s win over the Dockers, his ability to hit the scoreboard in the last quarter could count for something in a game where up to eight players could walk away with the 3-votes. He still finished with 24 touches, 10 of those contested, and six score involvements including a goal of his own.
He’s well embedded in the peloton, so the fact that most of that group are between $8 – $11 and Butters remains at $18 suggests there’s plenty of value here.
