A Swan has broken clear of the pack, but with Sydney having the bye in Round 5 who is our best bet?
Brownlow Leaderboard
| Player | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1. I.Heeney (Syd) | 11.75 | $6.00 |
| 2. C.Petracca (Mel) | 7.50 | $9.00 |
| 3. T.Green (GWS) | 7.25 | $7.00 |
| 4. P.Cripps (Carl) | 6.50 | $16.00 |
| 5. C.Serong (Fre) | 6.00 | $11.00 |
| 5. C.Rozee (PA) | 6.00 | $13.00 |
Best Bet
Isaac Heeney is the obvious choice for best bet at $6, but with a Round 5 bye for the Swans I expect this price to hold or improve next week – so the best bet this week is Christian Petracca.
Huge game by the Demon in their win over the Crows who has been super-consistent the last four years polling over a vote per game.
Had 25+ disposals and a goal in four of his five games so far in 2024, while ranked 8th for contested possessions per game. Has polled three best-ons in his last five games against the Lions, so another 3-voter puts him right behind Heeney after Round 5.
Lay
Taking nothing away from a monster performance against the Bombers, but this Port Adelaide midfield is stacked and Connor Rozee will be competing with Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis for votes each week.
Rozee polled poorly in his 2022 breakout season only securing 14 votes despite being one of the key chances, while he polled 21 last season but this was still below the expected tally of 23.4.
Although Butters is the major threat, how Jason Horne-Francis polled last year should be far more concerning – expected to poll 7.8 votes, he came away with 16 and appears 2024 he’ll be even better.
Value Bet
Just about been my value selection all season, and although Patrick Cripps won’t poll in Carlton’s win over the Dockers he’s still up there on the leaderboard and remains a good price.
While we’re re-visiting how players polled in comparison to expectation last year, Cripps was projected 16.5 votes last season and finished with 22 votes.
He just polls and the fact Carlton keep winning it’s surprising to still see him at this price.
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