With four rounds left the leaderboard has become awfully tight with some huge games approaching in Round 21, while a $601 shot has had a huge last six weeks.
Brownlow Leaderboard
| Player | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1. P.Cripps (Carl) | 24.75 | $3.10 |
| 2. N.Daicos (Coll) | 24.50 | $4.90 |
| 3. L.Neale (BL) | 22.75 | $4.90 |
| 4. C.Serong (Fre) | 21.50 | $9.00 |
| 5. I.Heeney (Syd) | 21.00 | N/A |
Best Bet
I know I said last week that I’ll be back on Cripps after a Daicos 3-vote performance against the Tigers, but with Collingwood up against Carlton in Round 21 I think I’ll stick with the Pie.
In Pendlebury’s 400th you would expect Collingwood to put in a big performance. The Pies beat Carlton when they met earlier in the year – Cripps had just 22 disposals, while Daicos had 32 touches and 2 goals including kicking the game-winner.
This match could decide this year’s medal!
Lay
Think Gulden should be a lot longer than the listed price. The Swan has been good don’t get me wrong, but he’s competed with both Heeney and Warner for votes all year, and now the Swans are out of form losing four of their last five games.
We’ve got Gulden in ninth place on 18 votes, but behind Anderson who is listed at $38, and very close to Warner and Tom Green who are $34 and $41 respectively.
Still think the Swans will win at least three of their last four games, but as a player that doesn’t accumulate a lot of contested possessions I’m not confident that Gulden will make a similar run to 2023’s count.
Value Bet
What if Serong doesn’t poll? Fremantle will likely finish this season inside the top-three, so if it’s not Serong someone has to poll for the Dockers – enter Andrew Brayshaw.
Now Brayshaw probably won’t win – but $601? Really? Since Round 11, the Docker has been instrumental when Fremantle has won.
Round 11 vs Collingwood (draw) – 31 disposals and 1 goal
Round 15 vs Gold Coast – 32 disposals and 1 goal
Round 17 vs Richmond – 35 disposals and 1 goal
Round 19 vs Melbourne – 41 disposals
Round 20 vs West Coast – 36 disposals and 1 goal
We have the Docker in equal 11th spot on 16.75 votes, and with Fremantle about to face Essendon he’s got another huge opportunity to go big. Brayshaw polled 25 votes in 2022 so we know he’s capable, so this is a potential cashout option.
