With Isaac Heeney potentially out of the Brownlow picture, how does that impact our leaderboard after Round 17?
Brownlow Leaderboard
| Player | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1. P.Cripps (Carl) | 22.50 | $3.50 |
| 2. N.Daicos (Coll) | 21.25 | $4.50 |
| 3. I.Heeney (Syd) | 21.00 | N/A |
| 4. M.Bontempelli (WB) | 18.50 | $6.00 |
| 5. Z.Merrett (Ess) | 17.75 | $6.00 |
Best Bet
The blueprint was shown to rival clubs against Carlton on the weekend, and it involved tagging Sam Walsh – not Brownlow favourite Patrick Cripps.
It was a huge performance by Cripps in Carlton’s loss to the Giants and at half-time you could pencil in another three votes, but that dwindled away from his grasp in the second-half.
Fortunately for Cripps, it’s unlikely that Daicos, Heeney and Bontempelli won’t do much damage this round in their team’s losses – so the Blues’ Skipper is still my best, but if you want to have a bet hold out till after Isaac Heeney’s tribunal hearing where you could potentially get a better price.
Lay
Has stormed back into calculations with a best on ground performance, but the plunge into $6 is way too short.
Zach Merrett will get three votes in Essendon’s win over the Pies, but prior to this we only have him recording 2.5 votes in the seven previous rounds.
Still too far back from the leading pack to be at this price.
Value Bet
Lachie Neale has been one of our main value plays across the season – it was only four weeks back we had him at $30, but with the Brisbane Lion polling three votes this round moving into sixth on 17.25 votes, the 2-time winner is now into $10 so I’ve opted for something slightly longer.
Caleb Serong has also been our value selection on multiple occasions this season, and although he won’t poll against Richmond, Fremantle has a very nice 5-week period ahead of them for the midfielder to rekindle his early season form.
The Dockers face the Hawks this round in Tassie, followed by hosting Melbourne and West Coast, an away game against Essendon before playing Geelong in Perth in Round 22. There’s the potential that Fremantle win four or five of these games, and if that’s the case Serong could make a late season run despite currently being in 8th place on 16.5 votes.
