We’ve got a $21 chance on top of the Brownlow Leaderboard after Round 1, while our best bet is still in double figures.
Brownlow Leaderboard
| Player | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1. I.Heeney (Syd) | 5.50 | $21.00 |
| 2. M.Rowell (GC) | 5.25 | $9.00 |
| 3. P.Cripps (Carl) | 4.75 | $17.00 |
| 4. T.Green (GWS) | 4.50 | $7.50 |
| 5. J.Hogan (GWS) | 3.75 | $501 |
Best Bet
The Dockers have a chance to start the 2024 strong with a relatively friendly draw which could see them 6-2.
If that is the case, Caleb Serong is a no-brainer for my best bet. If last year is anything to go by, Serong jumped ahead of Brayshaw in Fremantle’s midfield mix polling 24 votes in last year’s Brownlow compared to just 10 for Brayshaw.
Round 1 reaffirmed this with Serong producing a monster game with 46 disposals and a clear 3-vote performance. Don’t be surprised if he’s the Brownlow favourite after Round 8.
Lay
Cannot knock what Matt Rowell has produced in the first two games of the season but there’s a clear overreaction in the market with the Sun third favourite in betting.
Rowell’s performance historically has been hot and cold, and generally he always starts strong. Who could forget his debut season where he had three 3-vote games from his first four in 2020, while he also had a Round 3-vote performance in Round 1 2022.
Has notoriously slowed down as the season goes on, likely due to his combative style, and with Noah Anderson and Touk Miller has proven pollers in that Gold Coast midfield mix I think it will be hard for Rowell to poll enough votes to win.
Value Bet
Didn’t secure a single coaches vote in Round 0, but I have no doubt he’ll be polling in Carlton’s opening round win on Brownlow Night.
A huge performance in Carlton’s close Round 1 win over the Tigers where he’ll likely poll the three, and for someone of his status as a former winner and proven poller, the $17 on offer is way overs for Cripps.
