AFL Tips - Collingwood v Sydney

The Swans were victorious at home in the Opening Round, but can they travel to the MCG and defeat the reigning premiers?

Best Bet

Collingwood 1-39

Margin

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$2.13

A lot has been written and said about the Pies opening round loss to GWS but it is far from panic stations for the reigning premier.

The Giants kicked 18.6 to the Pies 11.18, so clearly the 32 point margin was not reflective of the overall pattern of the match. The Pies actually won the Inside 50 count by 60 to 53 and the expected score metric had them winning the game by 17 points.

Where the Pies were poor was with their defensive organization, but back on the familiar confines of the MCG, where they have been so hard to score against, they should improve drastically.

Sydney were no doubt impressive against the Dees but that was another game where the scoreboard flattered the winners. It only broke late on a very warm and humid night where there was a significant home ground advantage.

The Swans midfield did a great job to get on top of the Dees, but the Pies defensive pressure will be much stronger.

Collingwood has a habit of winning close games so laying the 10.5 looks less appealing than the margin in a game which should be close. Five of the last eight games between these sides have been decided by a single figure margin.

Same Game Multi

Collingwood H2H, N. Daicos 30+, J. Daicos 25+, Heeney, 20+, Roberts 15+ Disposals, Schulz 1+ Goal

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7.50

Nick Daicos is a ball winning machine while brother Josh had a fine start to the season as well. He does his best work at this ground.

For the Swans, Isaac Heeney has clearly relished his change of role while Matt Roberts has assumed much of the kick in duties, taking five of his team’s ten last week.

Looking at goals, Lachie Schulz had three behinds last week and the former Docker should be good for a major here.

Value Bet

Collingwood 1-12

12 Point Margins

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$5.50

We’ve bet it before and we’re going to keep betting it in Collingwood games until there is good evidence to move away from it. The Pies are just so good at grinding out close games.

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