The Brownlow is one of the best punting events of the year, and with plenty of markets and angles on offer, we’ve loaded up with a mega set of tips for Monday’s count.
Here are our Brownlow Medal tips for 2023.
Brownlow Predictor Leaderboard
| Player | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Z.Butters (PA) | 29.25 | $5.80 |
| 2. N.Daicos (Coll) | 28.50 | $2.65 |
| 3. M.Bontempelli (WB) | 28.00 | $2.95 |
| 4. C.Petracca (Mel) | 26.75 | $6.25 |
| 5. L.Neale (BL) | 25.00 | $12.00 |
Best Bet
Zak Butters caught fire at the perfect time during Port Adelaide’s 13-game win streak, and despite no polling history prior to this year, the Power mid will be a lot closer than the $5.80 suggests.
Don’t expect to hear “Z Butters” called between rounds 14-18 where we saw him drift back out to $26, but we’ve got a late flurry of votes in the final four rounds which could see Butters produce a monster comeback with 10 late votes.
If you’re after more analysis on the 2023 Brownlow Medal, you can purchase the full Brownlow Predictor spreadsheet for just $10 with full leaderboard, round by round votes and team breakdowns, at Downlow on the Brownlow.
More Brownlow Tips
This is a no-brainer for mine. Tim English only polled six votes last year and although 2023 was a breakout for the big man, the Bulldogs midfielders are such high-disposal accumulators it’s hard to see where the All Australian ruckman gets his votes.
Gawn on the other hand is one of the few ruckman that is a proven poller, polling double-figures in six of his last seven seasons. The Demons skipper produced some monster games late in the year, and we should see him hit double figures once again covering English by 5-6 votes.
No polling history for these rising stars, but on face value it’s hard to see how Sheezel, Owens and Ashcroft don’t combine for 10+ votes.
All three players had big games across the year, and we’ve projected them to combine for 16.25 votes with Owens on 5.92, Ashcroft 5.75 and Sheezel 4.58. Even if we are conservative, expect them to hit at least 12 votes between them.
A bit shocked to see Sicily the favourite. Don’t get me wrong, the defender had some big games but his output was very similar to 2022 where he just managed 7 votes.
Jai Newcombe led Hawthorn’s votes last year with 11 – significantly better than the 7.4 we projected in 2022 for the midfielder. Newcombe’s disposal and clearance numbers are well up on last year, and we could see him poll as high as 14 votes due to being instrumental in Hawthorn’s late season wins.
Inside midfielders poll, and although Swan James Rowbottom is yet to record a career Brownlow vote, 2023 is his year.
The drop-off from Mills, Parker and Warner to some extent should see Rowbottom catch the umpires’ eye in a few games this year in particular rounds 21 where he managed 24 disposals and 7 tackles in Sydney’s win over the Giants.
Started the season like a house on fire which may have been forgotten with Jordan De Goey listed at $2.70 to finish top-20.
Playing as a full-time mid this season, we had De Goey on 13 votes at Round 11 – it may come down to the last round for the Pie to enter the top-20 though, dependent on how he polls against the Bombers where we have him polling 2 votes.
The numbers suggest he’s no chance with Toby Greene the clear leader for the Giants, but Tom Green’s profile suggests he’s a real dark-horse to win the Giants count as well as a potential top-10 finish at $4.40.
Ranked #1 for disposals and contested possessions per game this season which is the key recipe to polling on Brownlow Night. The last player to do it was Matthew Boyd in 2011 who surprised many when he finished equal fourth. Could Green do the same?
Value Bets
IF Zak Butters polls to expectation, which could be a big if due to his limited polling history, the Port Adelaide star will be neck-and-neck with Daicos with the pair slightly ahead of Taranto.
We’ve got Butters and Daicos both on 19 votes after Round 15, which makes the $13 for the Power mid outstanding value.
Fair to say it’s not a common play on Brownlow night, but we’re taking a three-bet strategy here for West Coast without Tim Kelly. It really could be anyone!
Jamie Cripps genuinely does appear good value $4.40. He has 17 disposals and 3 goals in West Coast’s Round 2 win, 18 and 2 in their win over North Melbourne, and kicked a bag of five in their win over the Western Bulldogs in Round 23.
But there’s a couple at ridiculous odds which also wouldn’t surprise. Jayden Hunt has 22 disposals and 2 goals in their Round 2 win over the Giants, and 25 touches plus a goal in the North Melbourne win. As for McGovern, he was West Coast’s second-highest rated player according to Champion Data in their Round 2 win, and their third-highest rated played in their win over the Bulldogs.
Cripps is the main play, but savers at value on Hunt and McGovern.
Team Multi
Merrett (ESS), Serong (FREO), Cameron (GEEL), Newcombe (HAW), Sinclair (STK), Gulden (SYD) – $5.05
