The Brownlow is one of the best punting events of the year, and with plenty of markets and angles on offer, we’ve loaded up with a mega set of tips for Sunday’s count.
Here are our Brownlow Medal tips for 2022.
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Brownlow Predictor Leaderboard
| Player | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1. L.Neale (BL) | 27.00 | $3.00 |
| 2. P.Cripps (Carl) | 26.25 | $6.00 |
| 3. C.Petracca (Mel) | 24.75 | $7.00 |
| 4. C.Oliver (Mel) | 24.50 | $3.90 |
| 5. A.Brayshaw (Fre) | 22.25 | $6.00 |
Best Bet
Despite two quiet rounds to finish the season, Lachie Neale should have done enough to hold off the challenging pack by the conclusion of Round 21.
We’ve got the star Brisbane midfielder on 27 votes on our Brownlow Predictor, 0.75 ahead of Patrick Cripps with Melbourne duo Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver around 2.5 votes behind the Lion.
Being a former winner, Neale obviously has the polling record, and he faces less competition for votes from teammates than his nearest challengers.
If you’re after more analysis on the 2022 Brownlow Medal, you can purchase the full Brownlow Predictor spreadsheet for just $10 with full leaderboard, round by round votes and team breakdowns, at Downlow on the Brownlow.
More Brownlow Tips
Although Clayton Oliver is the second favourite in the market, we’ve got Patrick Cripps a close second in the count off the back of a dominant first eight rounds, along with a strong last five weeks of the season.
With Oliver and Petracca splitting votes, and then throwing Max Gawn into the mix, we consider the Blue a better chance of finishing behind Lachie Neale and the best chance to upset the favourite.
Last season was a big breakout season for Touk Miller, averaging 31.8 disposals per game, but when it came to Brownlow night he polled well under expectation with 17 votes, despite being projected in the early to mid-20s.
His 2022 season has still been outstanding, but statistically not as good as last year averaging 28.4 touches per game, while the likes of Noah Anderson, Matt Rowell and Izak Rankine have come on. Yes, the Suns have been a betterise this year, but only won three more games.
Expect more votes than last year on reputation alone, but we expect Miller to land on 22-23 and short of his votes line.
The Tiger has never been a big poller, but Dion Prestia has also never had clear air from Dustin Martin.
After a slow start for Prestia in 2022 where he may not poll in the first eight rounds, a late season purple patch could see the Tiger poll in four of the last five games and finish between 16-18 votes. Although Sam Walsh ($1.08), Rory Laird ($1.16) and Callum Mills ($1.18) are very short to feature in the top-10, we’ve got Dion Prestia on par with that trio.
A strong finish from Josh Dunkley could see him feature in the top-20, potentially polling five votes in the last three rounds to finish around the 13-14 vote mark.
It was statistically Dunkley’s best season since 2019 where he polled 15 votes and his ability to hit the scoreboard will play a major factor in polling strong in 2022, coming off a career-high of 18 goals.
Ben Keays is the favourite in this market, but Taylor Walker is a big chance of pipping the midfielder off the back of some big performances.
Although Keays could feature strongly earlier in the season, it will mainly be in the minor votes. As for Walker, he could quite easily see him producing three best on ground performances in Rounds 5, 12 and 15, while he is also likely to poll in Round 6.
The Hawks are clearly the most difficult team market to pick, and we’ve reached down to the fourth line of betting with Jack Gunston for some good value.
Round 1 is vital to Gunston’s chances – he had 18 touches and kicked 3.4 in a win against North Melbourne. If he can poll the maximum there, he puts himself in prime position off the back of great performances in Rounds 19 and 21, where he produced 5-goal efforts against the Kangaroos and the Suns respectively.
Value Bets
Patrick Cripps is the $2.60 favourite for this market due to his incredible first eight rounds, but Christian Petracca will be closer than the market suggests.
The Demon went big in Melbourne’s 10-game win streak where he should poll three votes in four games:
Round 1 – 38 disposals & 2 goals
Round 2 – 40 disposals
Round 5 – 30 disposals & 2 goals
Round 9 – 28 disposals & 2 goals
To go with this, Petracca is a chance of polling either 1 or 2 votes in four other games during this run and is a great bet to be there with Cripps and Neale at Round 10.
Although Noah Anderson sits next in line behind Touk Miller at the Suns on our predictor, the $15 on offer for David Swallow is worth a dabble.
We’ve got Swallow around 3 votes behind Anderson, but he was the Suns leading vote-getter in 2019 so he has history on his side. With big performances in Rounds 8 and 23 where he’s a chance to poll 3 votes, along with a strong output in Round 21 where he’ll be in the mix to poll, the $15 on offer is too good to ignore.
It was only two years back when we saw Reilly O’Brien poll the most votes for Adelaide at $101, so anything is possible on Brownlow night, and there’s some serious value in the player to poll in most games market.
Firstly, the $21 on offer for Andrew Brayshaw appears well overs – have we forgotten he was the Brownlow favourite at Round 20? Brayshaw’s output does dry up in the second half of the season, but he’s in the mix to poll in up to 16 games, even if it’s only 1-voters late.
Rory Laird is the other standout. Few had Laird in their Brownlow calculations in 2018 when he finished equal 6th with 19 votes but off the back of sheer disposal volume the Crow made an unexpected run.
The Crows star has outdone his 2018 season, averaging 33 disposals in 2022 (up 0.8), but more importantly it’s his monstrous tackle numbers (up from 2.1 in 2018 to 8.1 in 2022) which could see the Adelaide midfielder produce a whole heap of 1-vote games.
We have him potentially polling in 14 games this season and although this is a couple behind the favourites, at $81 he’s absolutely worth a wager.
Team Multi
Merrett (ESS), Brodie (FREO w/o Brayshaw), Cameron (GEEL), Davies-Uniacke (NM), Prestia (RICH), Mills (SYD) – $5.12
