AFL Tips - Western Bulldogs v West Coast

It could be an ugly end to Round 23 with the Dogs hosting the Eagles at Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Best Bet

Western Bulldogs -74.5

Line

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$1.90

It’s not often you see a 75-point line, but in this case it looks completely justified. This could be a bloodbath.

The Dogs have been merciless against bad teams this year, which is a big reason they have the third-best percentage despite starting Round 23 outside the eight.

Luke Beveridge’s side have played six games against bottom-six teams this year, winning all six by an average of 80 points. The only bottom-six team to cover against them, bizarrely, has been North — twice.

The only case for West Coast was that last week’s shockingly good effort against Adelaide signalled a late-season resurgence in 2025. That seems unlikely. History shows bad teams struggle against good teams late in the year. Since 2010, bottom-four sides facing top-eight teams in the final month cover the line just 37% of the time, dropping to 23% in interstate games.

The loss of Liam Duggan and Bailey Williams is enormous for a team that will have roughly 30 games less experience per player than their opposition, and who now must try to contain Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton, who have kicked 40 goals combined in their last five games.

The Dogs look set to win this by a very, very big margin.

Same Game Multi

Bulldogs -75.5, R.West 2+ Goals, T.McCarthy & T.Liberatore 25+ Disposals

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$6.25

There’s really no juice left in either Naughton or Darcy’s odds, but Rhylee West should get plenty of opportunity to hit the scoreboard.

Tom McCarthy is likely to be a very busy man on kick-in duties. He’s had 25+ in each of his last two.

Libba has had 25+ in three straight at home.

Value Bet

S.Darcy & A.Naughton 5+ Goals

Same Game Multi

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$5.75

It’s pretty tough to find much value in this one but both Darcy and Naughton have kicked 5+ each in two of the Dogs last three games. Given the Eagles’ defensive injuries, they could both pile on the goals again.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.