The undefeated Swans and winless Bulldogs kick off AFL Round 3 in what the bookies expect to be a very close game.
Under 174.5 Points ($1.88)
High scoring opening rounds leads to inflated total points lines and some terrific betting opportunities, including this match-up at Marvel.
The numbers are all one way supporting the unders.
Eight of the last nine meetings between these two sides have gone under. The last five have all gone under the total by a huge average margin of 25 points per game.
Opening month matches at Marvel have gone under at 67% in the past four years, increasing to 90% of games played at night.
As we touched on in our Round 2 AFL Betting Lessons, average total points already dropped by two goals from Round 1 to 2, from 175 to 163 points. History says it will continue to drop in the coming weeks. Round 3 games have gone under at 57% over the last five years and Round 4 games 69%.
The Swans have been scoring at will this year so you can be sure Luke Beveridge will be going to work on shutting down their electric ball movement. Coming off a six day break and the emotional frenzy of Buddy’s 1000th goal, Sydney could be off a fraction.
A total of 174.5 is very high. Both totals the 170s this season have fallen short. In what should be a very tight contest, the under is the bet.
Same Game Multi
Tribet – Either Team Under 39.5 Points / Under 174.5 Points / I.Heeney Anytime Goal / J.Lloyd 25+ Disposals ($3.92)
Seven of the last nine games between these two sides have been decided by less than four goals either way.
Jake Lloyd has only missed 25 disposals twice in his last 22 matches, once by four touches and once by just one.
Isaac Heeney 3+ Goals ($3.80)
The Swans Academy product has been in white hot touch to start 2022, booting eight goals and being backed in to $15 for the Brownlow.
Heeney shapes as a tough match-up for the Dogs. Luke Beveridge’s men conceded 25.7% of their goals to mid-sized forwards in 2021 – the most of any team.
He’s kicked three or more goals in his last four matches.