AFL Tips - Western Bulldogs v Melbourne

A slumping Western Bulldogs side hosts a red-hot Melbourne at Marvel Stadium to close out Round 11.

Best Bet

Melbourne -4.5

Line

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$1.90

This is one of the bets of the season.

It is unfathomable that the Dogs were favourites earlier in the week. They have lost five of their last six games, scored just 69.7 points per game and conceded 103.4 over that stretch.

Melbourne have gone 4-1 in their last five, covering the line in four, with wins over Hawthorn and Brisbane and only a narrow loss to Sydney. Through those five games they have averaged a competition-high 112 points. One team here can score, the other simply cannot.

The Dogs get O’Donnell and Treloar back which helps, but without Tim English they will get smashed by Gawn and Heath in the ruck, which will neutralise the Dogs sole remaining strength, their midfield.

Back the Dees with confidence.

Same Game Multi

Melbourne -4.5, B.Dale 25+ Disposals, B.Fritsch 2+ Goals, K.Pickett Anytime Goal

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$4.75

Bayley Fritsch has kicked two or more goals in eight of his nine games against the Dogs. Kysaiah Pickett has kicked nine goals in his last four games and the Dogs have no answer for him right now.

Bailey Dale is going to have plenty of work to do from half-back with Melbourne flooding forward and will take plenty of kick-ins. He has had 30 or more disposals in his last three games at Marvel.

Value Bet

Melbourne 40+

Winning Margin

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$4.70

The Dogs have lost three of their last four against top-six teams by 40 or more points and Melbourne look every bit a top-six team in 2026. The Dees are going to score 110 or more here while the Dogs are struggling to break 70 right now. A big margin looks very much on the way.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.