Hawthorn are playing better than their results suggest and are capable of pushing the Dogs on Sunday at Marvel Stadium.
Best Bet
Given the Hawks are 1-6 and second last on the ladder, it sounds flippant to say that goalkicking is a major issue but trust me, it is.
It is also something that is capable of turning around very quickly.
Last week’s 70 odd point loss against the Swans was just the latest Hawks loss that Champion Data’s Expected Score suggested they were far more competitive in than the real scoreboard showed.
They only lost the inside 50 count by three, and won the contested possession and clearance numbers – against one of the best midfields in the AFL. If they keep doing that, the results will eventually follow.
That can start this week against the Dogs who are once again very inconsistent in 2024. Teams move the ball far too easily against them, as even the stodgy Dockers looked like the 2007 Cats at times last week in Perth.
Hawthorn are an excellent bet with the points in this one.
Same Game Multi
Bailey Dale is back to his ball pig ways with 30 or more in the last two weeks. He is a pivotal user for the Dogs out of the backline.
Will Day was quiet last week in his first game back from injury but in racing parlance, should be better for the run.
Jack Ginnivan has been horribly inaccurate but is well and truly capable of turning it around.
Value Bet
The Hawks are nice value to cause the upset here. They managed to beat the Dogs in Round 22 last year, effectively ending their finals hopes.
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