The in-form Bulldogs and Hawks meet on Friday night in one of the most eagerly anticipated finals of recent years.
Best Bet
The Bulldogs’ midfield strength should be the difference here.
Finals typically means more chaotic, high-pressure footy which Luke Beveridge’s men look more equiped to handle as the best contested possession and ground ball gets team over the last five weeks (the Hawks are 12th for both numbers).
The Hawks were already up against it facing Bont, Libba, Treloar and Richards but will struggle even more without Will Day and Cam Mackenzie in the middle.
The Hawks will enjoy ‘home’ ground advantage here despite finishing beneath the Dogs but in an odd fixture quirk, they have only played one night game in the last two seasons. The Dogs also have 24 players on their list with finals experience to Hawthorn’s 12.
Take the Dogs to progress to the final six.
If a lot of rain arrives in the evening, then the under becomes the top play.
Taking the under in wet weather is one of footy’s best bets, with 70% of rain-affected games falling short of the number since 2010 including a ridiculous 78% played at night.
Night games at the MCG this season have also leaned toward low-scoring this year, with 14 of 23 going under including five of the last six.
Expect Hawthorn’s electric ball movement and the Dogs’ tall forward line to be severely hampered in wet conditions and a low-scoring game to result.
INSIGHTS
🔥 Hawthorn at MCG: Hawthorn has won their last 5 games at the MCG, covering the spread in each of those games.
🏉 Western Bulldogs Recent Performance: Western Bulldogs have won 6 of their last 9 games, with 3 wins by 40+ points.
🔒 Western Bulldogs Against Top 8: Western Bulldogs have seen the total points go under in 8 of their last 9 games against top 8 teams.
Same Game Multi
Jai Newcombe looks built for finals and has had 30+ in three of his last four while Libba will certainly be at the bottom of every pack. He’s had 20+ in 13 of his last 14.
Expecting a few Hawks smalls to get midfield minutes with Day and Mackenzie out. The diminutive Watson won’t be one of them and he’s booted six in his last two games.
The Bont has kicked 2+ in each of his last three finals.
Value Bet
When the Bulldogs win, they win big in 2024. They have the competition’s highest winning margin of 49.1 points per game and twelve of their 14 wins have come by more than six goals. Especially if the rain holds, their tall forwards could do a number on Hawthorn’s under-sized backline.
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